The Pursuit of Understanding: Modelling Dynamic Behaviour in ...
THE PURSUIT OF UNDERSTANDING: MODELLING DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR IN DISEASE, LIFE & LOVE Brian Dangerfield Professor of Systems Modelling Centre for OR & Applied Statistics System Dynamics
modelling is based upon: * Concept of Information Feedback * Delays * Mapping Tools Stock-Flow Diagrams Influence Diagrams * Equations linking variables to one
another in the system Chou En-lai (1898-1976) - asked for his assessment of the effects of the French Revolution At what minute did most people enter the bar?
At what minute did most people leave the bar? At what minute were most people in the bar? At what minute were fewest people in the bar? A stock-flow diagram
Entering In the bar Leaving COCAINE PREVALENCE IN THE USA
Survey data suggested lifetime prevalence estimates .were falling rapidly in the latter part of 1980s Argument for more resources to support policies of .interdiction & incarceration (rather than prevention) ;But reported decline physically impossible (Homer) Survey collected biased data- first time
cocaine use Current & Past Users (lifetime prevalence) death from
all causes Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information 7 +2 George Miller, Psychological Review 63:2 (1956) pp. 81-97
5 variables A, B, C, D, and E A A= f (B,C,D) B= f (C, E) C= f (B,A)
B C D= f (C, E) E= f (B,C) E
D Who are the most important people involved in securing the safe passage of an aircraft from A to B?
DYNAMICS OF AN EPIDEMIC MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL Number of Feature
equations (approx) Year (quarter) of introduction Project-based model 13
1987(2) Variable infectivity 20 1989(1)
Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2) Reporting delay & fitting model to data
2001(3) Effects of regression in behaviour after HAART (fitting to HIV data) Estimated Numbers & Percent on HAART at end-1998
Homo/bisexual men only Estimated Number of Patients U.K. 10734 France 17500 Germany
10359 Netherlands 2069 Percent of total 67% 64% 69%
76% FASHION ITEM DYNAMICS TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN ISLAND ECONOMIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN
AN ISLAND TOURIST ECONOMY Need a balance between economic gain and environmental conservation. For: jobs; tax revenue; foreign currency earnings Against: environmental pollution; higher cost of living; migration from agriculture to tourist services
Environmental deterioration might affect the numbers and/or mix of tourist visitors no rail links - congested motorways Reina Sofia airport congestion obsolete tourist facilities; poor professional training Issues:
water supply waste collection and treatment communications health care noise pollution public safety DIFFUSION OF AN INNOVATION
Barriers to innovation: QWERTY Keyboard : Sholes vs Dvorak VHS video format vs Betamax Sharp take-off innovations: CAT scanners Mobile phones
CLUBBED TO DEATH (Student Direct Dec. 2002) Superclubs are suffering Renaissance; Gatecrasher, Cream. How did things go so wrong? Competition more clubs and (now) bars. Merchandising (In 2000, 5% of MoS
profits came from the clubs). Big name DJs charged at least 10K per set. Higher door prices. spin-off merchandising 2 (brand awareness)
+ + + 1 visiting rate + profits + +
numbers in club per club per week - 6 3 new bar + 4
openings + + new club DJ fees openings average club
5 door price+ SARAWAK (EAST MALAYSIA) CORAS/CER Two year research project Economic model for the State Government
Model Purpose? Map of Borneo GDP RM Millions Sarawak Gross Domestic Product 1980 1999
Combination electrodes (indicator+reference) for convenience (tube within a tube) pH sensing component of the indicator electrode is the glass bulb, which is a thin glass membrane ~ 0.03 - 0.1 mm thick. When immersed, H+ ions from the solution enter...
Apprendre à utiliser SignText Support de cours Anne-Claude Prélaz Girod SignText qu'est ce que c'est ? SignPuddle & SignText -> ont été conçus et programmés par Steve Slevinski -> SignText est l'un des outils à disposition dans SignPuddle -> SignText...
Ensuring the health of our estuaries is vital to the survival of the plant and animal communities. To preserve our estuaries, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System . was established to protect more than 1.3 million acres of estuarine habitat...
1Department of Anatomy & Structural Biology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY; 2Bronx High School of Science, Bronx, NY Abstract Determining the Distance Between the Primary Cilium's Tip and a Glass Coverslip Results Live Cell Interference Imaging
Organisms and Their Relationships. Ecology. Organisms depend on other organisms and nonliving factors in their environment for survival. Ecology is the branch of Biology that studies relationships and interactions between organisms and their environment.
Language: Synonym And as my reverie softened down to a sadder and sadder pathos, the shrieking of the winds outside softened to a wail, the angry beating of the rain against the panes diminished to a tranquil patter, and one...
Ready to download the document? Go ahead and hit continue!