The Impact of an Adult Child's Emigration on the Mental ...

The Impact of an Adult Child's Emigration on the Mental ...

The Impact of an Adult Childs Emigration on the Mental Health of Older Parents Alan Barrett and Irene Mosca 31 January 2014 Structure of the talk Motivation why are we interested in the question of whether a childs emigration might impact upon the mental health of parents? where is this paper placed in the literature? The data, the method and the variables TILDA, a fixed effects approach and the mental health measures The sample and descriptive stats Results Conclusions Motivation (1) Why is the research question of interest? From a national (Irish) perspective Emigration is often characterised as a consequence of recession that affects younger people; but maybe there is an effect on older people too From an international perspective A growing literature on the impact of migration on the family members left behind (Antman, 2013) Motivation (2) What are the impacts of migration on the family members left behind? On childrens education On childrens health On spouses labour supply On parents health This is where we come in Data, method and variables (1) TILDA Wave 1 collected between 2009 and 2011 Extensive information collected on 8,500 people aged 50 and over; response rate 62% The data covers economic, social and health circumstances Intensive efforts to keep people engaged between Wave 1 and Wave 2: birthday cards, newsletters, certificate of participation

TILDA Wave 2 collected in 2012 Response rate was 90% (including an end-of-life interview and proxy interview) Data, method and variables (2) Critically for our purposes, we have measures of mental health for the respondents and we know where their children were living in Waves 1 and 2 We also know a lot about other changes between Waves 1 and 2 such as bereavement, retirement, onset of illness Hence, we can explore whether mental health changed in response to a childs emigration controlling for other changes over this period Data, method and variables (3) By focusing on changes, we difference away time-invariant unobservables which may be correlated with both the childs emigration and parental mental health We follow Lindeboom et al (2003) and Wooldridge and estimate a fixed effects model by differencing the basic equation and applying OLS Data, method and variables (4) Measuring mental health Depression CESD is 20-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. It measures the degree to which respondents have experienced a wide variety of depressive symptoms within the past week. Each of the 20 items is measured on a 4 point scale leading to a min score of 0 and a max score of 60. Self-rated emotional/mental health on a 1 (excellent)-5 (poor) scale Loneliness UCLA Loneliness Scale. Cross-sectional score ranges between 0 (not lonely) to 10 (extremely lonely). The sample We select people who are parents of children aged 16 and over at Wave 1; we exclude parents with children who are younger than 16 We only look at parents all of whose children were living in Ireland at Wave 1 This gives a sample of 2,912 parents

Of this group, 361 had seen a child emigrate between Waves 1 and 2 Descriptive Stats Variables in regressions Men & Women together No 1+ children children emigrating emigrating Outcome variables Change in CES-D score, mean Change in self-reported mental health score, mean Change in UCLA loneliness score, mean -0.518 0.151 0.135 0.029 0.166 0.226 Demographic changes: Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends Health changes: New ADL New IADL Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Economic changes: Retired Unemployed Change in weekly individual gross income, mean Changes in childrens conditions: 1+ children unemployed 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 1.5% 43.8%

0.3% 47.3% 4.2% 5.6% 21.9% 26.6% 19.8% 4.8% 1.4%** 1.1%*** 21.7% 22.7% 18.2% 4.0% 4.6% 1.1% 1.458 6.3% 2.8%** -15.755 11.6% 5.1% 10.1% 5.1% Variables not in regressions Men & Women together Age, mean No children emigrating 66.3 1+ children emigrating 60.5*** Education: Low

Medium 41.5% 43.8% 22.7%*** 52.1%*** High 14.7% 25.2%*** 6.07 4.68*** 1.60 1.47 2.22 2.17 2.67 2.47** Depression score at wave 1 Loneliness score at wave 1 SR mental/emotional health at wave 1 SR physical health at wave 1 Descriptives for the children Age, mean High education at w1 Non-emigrating children Emigrating children 35.9

28.6*** 30.8% 43.8%*** Results CESD full sampleCESD full sample Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends New ADL New IADL Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Retired Unemployed Change in income (000s) 1+ children emigrated 1+ children unemployed 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single Constant N Men & women Coeff. t stat. 5.156*** (3.88) 0.731** (2.42) 1.828** (2.00) 0.544 (0.64) 0.945*** (2.68) 0.546 (1.58) 0.944*** (2.87) 2.024*** (2.97) 1.072***

(2.65) 0.634 (0.49) -0.0431 (-0.46) 0.809* (1.78) 0.305 (0.69) 0.965 (1.22) -1.799*** (-7.67) 2912 CESD full sampleCESD men and women Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends New ADL New IADL Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Retired Unemployed Change in income (000s) 1+ children emigrated 1+ children unemployed 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single Constant N Women only Coeff. t stat. 5.136*** (2.89) 1.165*** (2.88) 2.378** (2.01) 0.473 (0.45) 1.024** (2.01) 0.808*

(1.75) 1.760*** (3.80) 1.363 (1.51) 1.179* (1.80) -2.660 (-1.03) -0.0563 (-0.41) 1.229** (2.06) 0.418 (0.71) 1.011 (0.96) -2.380*** (-7.05) 1707 Men only Coeff. t stat. 5.001*** (3.20) 0.128 (0.33) 0.643 (0.53) 0.880 (0.65) 0.838** (2.05) 0.0946 (0.19) -0.0973 (-0.23) 3.080*** (2.81) 0.821* (1.71) 1.980 (1.50) -0.0225 (-0.20) 0.292 (0.54) 0.0508

(0.09) 0.725 (0.86) -1.019*** (-3.27) 1205 CESD full sample self-rated mental health Women only Men only Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat. 0.365 (1.46) 0.338 (1.16) -0.00512 (-0.10) 0.0345 (0.55) New ADL 0.0809 (0.51) 0.0711 (0.42) New IADL

0.0717 (0.51) 0.0177 (0.10) Cardiovascular disorder 0.00740 (0.11) 0.0122 (0.17) Chronic illness 0.113** (2.05) 0.0443 (0.54) 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.419*** (5.98) 0.449*** (6.44) 2-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.871*** (6.54) 1.020***

(5.69) Retired 0.0717 (0.64) 0.261** (2.45) Unemployed 0.203 (0.81) 0.224 (0.99) -0.00082 (-0.03) -0.0251 (-1.31) 0.166** (2.20) -0.0738 (-0.93) 1+ children unemployed 0.117 (1.44) -0.0930 (-0.88)

1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 0.188* (1.67) -0.0592 (-0.41) Constant -0.0677 (-1.44) -0.0436 (-0.87) Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends Change in income (000s) 1+ children emigrated N 1707 1205 CESD full sample loneliness score Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends Change in positive exchanges score Change in negative exchanges score New ADL New IADL Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Retired Unemployed Change in income (000s)

1+ children emigrated 1+ children unemployed 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single Constant N Women only Coeff. t stat. 0.495 (0.65) 0.167 (1.47) -0.0940*** (-5.56) 0.0595*** (4.10) -0.480 (-0.88) -0.136 (-0.40) -0.213 (-1.40) 0.244* (1.76) 0.252* (1.70) 0.446* (1.67) -0.0707 (-0.33) 0.0838 (0.13) -0.164** (-2.29) 0.432*** (2.78) -0.203 (-1.01) -0.00888 (-0.04) -0.0945 (-0.89) 983 Men only Coeff. t stat. 1.712* (1.94) 0.0468 (0.36) -0.0504***

(-3.21) 0.0517*** (3.69) 0.574 (0.94) -0.200 (-0.33) 0.00918 (0.06) -0.243 (-1.28) -0.0500 (-0.30) -0.277 (-1.18) -0.0696 (-0.39) 0.506 (1.34) 0.0135 (0.41) -0.0320 (-0.14) 0.362 (1.49) 0.127 (0.40) 0.0338 (0.33) 749 A potential problem (Apparently), people with poor mental health experience faster declines in mental health If this is the case, our fixed effects approach could still be producing misleading results To deal with this, we (1) restrict the sample to those with low CESD scores in Wave 1 (<16) and (2) we interact the child emigrate variable with a retrospective indicator of mental health problems CESD full sampleCESD CESD <16 at W1 Women only Men only

Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat. 4.450*** (3.01) 4.300*** (3.17) Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 0.419 (1.21) 0.162 (0.48) New ADL 1.927 (1.40) 1.142 (0.96) New IADL 1.478 (1.56) 1.330 (1.04) Cardiovascular disorder

1.055** (2.23) 0.590 (1.57) Chronic illness 1.405*** (3.53) 0.216 (0.43) 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.866* (1.96) -0.0946 (-0.28) 2-point deterioration in self-reported health 1.201 (1.63) 2.602** (2.45) Retired 0.526 (0.83) 0.148

(0.31) Unemployed -0.149 (-0.07) 1.267 (0.94) Change in income (000s) -0.144 (-1.14) -0.0742 (-0.90) 1+ children emigrated 0.917* (1.66) -0.0847 (-0.17) 1+ children unemployed 0.120 (0.20) 0.296 (0.60) 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 1.410 (1.49)

0.332 (0.40) -0.972*** (-3.40) -0.291 (-1.06) Widowhood Constant N 1511 1137 CESD full sample self-rated mental health good or better at W1 Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends New ADL New IADL Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Retired Unemployed Change in income (000s) 1+ children emigrated 1+ children unemployed 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single Constant N Women only Coeff. t stat. 0.358 (1.38) -0.00675 (-0.13)

0.129 (0.75) 0.251* (1.75) 0.0326 (0.48) 0.0853 (1.49) 0.381*** (5.49) 0.776*** (5.55) 0.0274 (0.24) 0.246 (1.11) -0.00045 (-0.02) 0.181** (2.46) 0.149* (1.78) 0.209* (1.88) 0.0527 1528 (1.12) Men only Coeff. t stat. 0.297 (0.81) 0.0468 (0.75) 0.0365 (0.20) 0.0824 (0.39) 0.0445 (0.60) 0.0323 (0.38) 0.427*** (6.07) 1.064*** (5.76)

0.185* (1.73) 0.156 (0.68) -0.0241 (-1.29) -0.128 (-1.58) -0.0335 (-0.31) -0.0803 (-0.58) 0.0300 1120 (0.60) CESD full sampleCESD; with interactions between history of mental health problems and child emigrate Widowhood Loss of close relatives/friends Loss in functional capacity (new ADL) Loss in functional capacity (new IADL) Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-rated health 2-point deterioration in self-rated health Retirement Unemployment Change in income (000s) Ref: No childs emigration * no history of depression No childs emigration * history of depression Childs emigration * no history of depression Childs emigration * history of depression Childs unemployment Childs marital breakdown/widowhood Constant N Mothers only Coeff. t stat. 5.028*** (2.82) 1.132*** (2.83)

* 2.286 (1.94) 0.727 (0.71) 1.010** (1.99) 0.756* (1.65) 1.752*** (3.77) 1.356 (1.50) 1.206* (1.82) -2.709 (-1.04) -0.0470 (-0.34) Fathers only Coeff. t stat. 4.892*** (3.15) 0.124 (0.32) 0.712 (0.58) 0.909 (0.67) 0.858** (2.09) 0.0768 (0.15) -0.120 (-0.29) 3.012*** (2.74) 0.771 (1.60) 2.013 (1.52) -0.0348 (-0.32) -1.995

0.870 7.108*** 0.430 0.886 -2.229*** 1706 -1.741 0.308 -1.182 0.109 0.690 -0.934*** 1205 (-1.64) (1.44) (2.97) (0.73) (0.85) (-6.70) (-1.20) (0.60) (-0.33) (0.18) (0.82) (-3.06) Does this suggest that there may be reverse causality? Were children whose parents had suffered a mental health problem more likely to emigrate? We test this by running a probit regression where child emigrate is now the dependent variable. Probit with child emigrate as dependent variable Age Medium education High education Employed Other Another town/city Rural area Income 2nd quintile

Income 3rd quintile Income 4th quintile Income 5th quintile Married/cohabiting Number of children Return migrant Past diagnosis of depression CES-D score Good self-rated health Fair/poor self-rated health Past diagnosis of cancer Past diagnosis of heart attack Constant N Mothers only Coeff. -0.0457*** 0.164 0.285* -0.175 -0.150 -0.179 -0.185 0.0349 -0.0703 0.149 0.0847 0.0471 0.144*** 0.160 -0.106 -0.0145** 0.0272 -0.103 -0.0406 -0.417 1.290*** 1,589 t stat. (-6.47) (1.31) (1.94) (-1.13) (-1.10) (-1.35)

(-1.58) (0.26) (-0.41) (1.00) (0.49) (0.41) (5.41) (1.30) (-0.45) (-1.98) (0.27) (-0.64) (-0.22) (-0.92) (2.66) Fathers only Coeff. t stat. -0.0519*** (-5.52) 0.161 (1.22) 0.407*** (2.73) -0.0969 (-0.61) 0.0242 (0.12) -0.0101 (-0.07) 0.0221 (0.16) -0.182 (-0.80) -0.267 (-1.23) -0.0902 (-0.49) -0.163 (-0.94) 0.273 (1.63) *** 0.187 (5.57) 0.346***

(2.61) 0.306 (1.31) -0.0119 (-1.09) 0.0175 (0.13) -0.0704 (-0.36) 0.195 (0.73) ** -0.918 (-2.23) 1.271** (2.09) 1,134 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999

1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 And can we take the push to emigrate as being an exogenous shock? Emigrants in 1,000s 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

10 0 Does it matter that the emigrants parents are younger? CESD regression for those aged 65 and under only significant coefficients shown here Widowhood Decrease in number of close relatives/friends Cardiovascular disorder Chronic illness 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 2-point deterioration in self-reported health Retired 1+ children emigrated 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single Constant N Women only Coeff. t stat. 7.455*** (3.22) 1.479** (2.56) 1.455** (1.97) 1.409** (2.17) 1.712*** (2.59) 0.894 (0.58) 1.549 (1.55) 1.594** (2.30) 3.200** (2.37) -2.788*** (-5.44) 1038 Men only Coeff. t stat. 6.266*** (11.54) -0.282 (-0.53) 1.318** (2.33) -0.103

(-0.14) 0.300 (0.50) 4.377*** (2.73) 0.981* (1.65) 0.410 (0.62) 0.453 (0.36) -0.979** (-2.22) 652 Does it matter if the emigrating child is a son or daughter? CESD regression only showing coefficients for emigrant child dummy variables Different point estimates but not statistically significant Women only Men only Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat. Child emigrating is male 1.162 (1.33) 0.161 (0.21) Child emigrating is female 1.940** (2.21)

0.534 (0.59) N 1733 1207 Does it matter if the emigrating child was living with the parents at W1? CESD regression no statistically significant difference Women only Men only Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat. Child emigrating was co-resident at w1 1.036 (1.01) 0.571 (0.76) Child emigrating was NOT co-resident at w1 N 1.355* (1.91) 0.0217 (0.03) 1753

1226 Other things we looked at... Age of emigrating child Does the emigrating child have children (ie. grandchildren of our participants) Results as expected but no statistically significant differences between estimated coefficients Conclusion There appears to be reasonably robust evidence that the emigration of an adult child affects of the mental health of mothers. But effect strongest among mothers with a previous history of depression This is important in itself but also in terms of how mental health impacts upon physical health There might also be impacts on potential emigrants and another dimension to Mincers (1978) tied stayers

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