Template for NCO Planning Meeting - National Oceanic and ...

Template for NCO Planning Meeting - National Oceanic and ...

N C E P Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with an Emphasis on Climate William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP With contributions from many EMC Staff Regional Climate February 2011 1 The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements: Develop and Enhance numerical guidance Improve NCEPs numerical forecast model systems via: 45% Scientific upgrades Optimization Additional observations Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations Transform & integrate 30% Code Algorithms Techniques Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation Maintain operational model suite

scientific correctness and integrity of 25% The operational forecast modeling systems Modify current operational system to adapt to EMC location within the funnel Regional Climate February 2011 2 NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Hours Minutes Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System Global Forecast System Real Time Ocean Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Waves Hurricane WRF & GFDL North American Mesoscale Space Weather Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Tsunami me nt iro n En v th He al

on tro l Ag ri c u lt u re Re cre at i on Ec os yst em er ir C ow rvo rop Re se nn in g Hy d Pla En erg y en cy Mg mt Co mm erc e Em

erg rat ion s eW eat he r Fir pe me Sp ace O Ma riti Av iat io n Benefits ert y Warnings & Alert Coordination Days rop Watches 1 Week &P Forecasts 2 Week Lif e Threats

Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance Regional Climate February 2011 3 Regional Climate February 2011 6 : 4 5 : 0 0 9 : 4 5 : 0 0 9 : 0 0 : 0 0 8 : 1 5 : 0 0 0 7 : 3 0 : 0 0

20 5 : 1 5 : 0 0 30 6 : 0 0 : 0 0 40 23:15:00 High Water Mark 4 : 3 0 : 0 0 Fence 3 : 0 0 : 0 0 22:30:00 21:45:00 21:00:00 20:15:00 19:30:00

100 3 : 4 5 : 0 0 18 18:45:00 18:00:00 110 1 : 3 0 : 0 0 Time of the day (utc) 17:15:00 Development Work 2 : 1 5 : 0 0 12 16:30:00 15:45:00 15:00:00 14:15:00 13:30:00 12:45:00

80 12:00:00 90 11:15:00 60 10:30:00 70 9:45:00 130 9:00:00 8:15:00 7:30:00 140 0 : 4 5 : 0 0 06 6:45:00 6:00:00 5:15:00 4:30:00 3:45:00 3:00:00 2:15:00 1:30:00 January 2010

0 : 0 0 : 0 0 00 0:45:00 0:00:00 Number of Nodes Production Suite on Supercomputer STRATUS HWM Nodeuse for20 91202 140 dev 130 ofs_a te s t 120 par 120 10 mult misc 10 cdc 90 dgex 80 aqm cdas 70 hires 50 60

sr ef goda 50 c fs 40 mr f 10 30 firew merg 20 ruc2 10 hur wav e 0 gefs gdas 4 gfs_a Production Suite on Supercomputer December 2010 Number of Nodes Development Work Fence High Water Mark 00 06 12 Capacity Change: Time of the day (utc)

50% increase in production 80% decrease in development 18 Regional Climate February 2011 5 Development Work on Supercomputer Number of Nodes December 2010 00 06 12 18 Time of the day (utc) Regional Climate February 2011 6 The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015-1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 Regional Climate February 2011 7 Regional Climate February 2011

8 Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned for Q2FY11 Attribute Operational (Since 2004) Jan 2011 Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag MOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global x deg. Assim depth 4737 m 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice Daily 30 minutes Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Ocean model Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation Sea ice Coupling Data assimilation Reforecasts Regional Climate February 2011 9 Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V2 (FY11) A total of 16 CFS runs every day 4 runs @ 9 months length 3 runs @ 1 season 9 runs @ 45 days 0 UTC 6 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 9 Month Seasonal 45 Day Regional Climate February 2011 10 Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar CFS Operational Skill

Skill CFS V2 3 days Days Days WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec 22 days WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational Skill Skill CFS V2 7 days Days Days 25 days Regional Climate February 2011 11 Increasing Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities International MME products (with EUROSIP) NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model+NCAR CSM Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS

Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009) Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM Regional Climate February 2011 12 Land-Hydrology Team Mission Improve EMC Forecast Model performance and skill via land-surface component: NAM/WRF, HWRF, GFS, CFS, CFSRR/GLDAS, NARR (including NDAS and GDAS) Land model physics (Noah LSM): surface fluxes, soil, vegetation, snowpack, sfc-layer/ PBL Land surface characteristics: Vegetation cover, soil type, albedo, emissivity, roughness, etc Land state initial conditions: soil moisture & temp, snowpack Climate Service Products (CPPA): NLDAS soil moisture analysis/monitoring/prediction for NIDIS (drought) NLDAS soil moisture seasonal predictions CEOP (Global Model intercomparisons among NWP centers; GEWEX program) 11 Regional Climate February 2011 13 EXTREMES: Monthly total column soil moisture anomalies and model spread (mm/month) June 1998 drought year Large similarity and small spread July 1993 flood year Similar characteristics and large spread Regional Climate February 2011 14

Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) Adopting Navy 1/12 global HYCOM model using Example surface currents from MMAB parallel Daily initialization from NAVO. GFS forcing. Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-up. NCO parallel started FY10Q4. Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. Develop products with customers. Full data on NOMADS. Become operational in FY2011Q4 Regional Climate February 2011 15 NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) NEMS Component Structure NEMS LAYER MAI N Start time Run length Ensemble Component NEMS All boxes represent ESMF components. Atm Ocean Choice of physical domain and component Ice

GFS NMM Individual nests Ensemble Coupler EARTH(1:NM) FIM Component execution Domains(1:ND) Dyn Phy Wrt Dyn Phy Chem Wrt Dyn Phy Wrt 2 Below the dashed line the source codes are organized by the model developers. Regional Climate February 2011 16 Questions Welcome Regional Climate February 2011 17

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