Drivers Impacting the Lubricant Industry Afton Chemical Phil

Drivers Impacting the Lubricant Industry Afton Chemical Phil

Drivers Impacting the Lubricant Industry Afton Chemical Phil Ames March 2013 Topics Market Drivers Energy consumption trends Government regulations How Can the Lubricant Industry Help? Commercial vehicles Passenger cars Industrial 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Market Drivers

Global Energy Consumption Trends Total fossil fuel from 87% to 81% Mainly lost share to nuclear Petroleum derivatives remain the most important sector for consumption Source: 2012 IEA Key Energy Stats 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Global Energy Consumption Issues Finite amount of fossil fuel Health effects Climate change Consumer impacts Are drivers for change Government regulation Energy conservation Alternative energy sources 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Key Drivers - Regulations

Government Fuel Economy & Emission Mandates Changes in Equipment Design & Hardware Changes in Fuels & Lubricants 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Commercial Vehicle Key Drivers - Regulations Legacy Regulations New Regulations 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Commercial Vehicle Key Drivers - Regulations MY 2017 Combination Tractor Standards EPA Emission Standards (max. grams CO2 / ton-mile) NHTSA Fuel Consumption Standards (max. gallons / 1,000 ton-mile) Low Roof

Mid Roof High Roof Low Roof Mid Roof High Roof Day Cab Class 7 104 115 120 10.2 11.3 11.8 Day Cab Class 8 80

86 89 7.8 8.4 8.7 Sleeper Class 8 66 73 72 6.5 7.2 7.1 Engine Standards for Tractor Installations Engine Type

Year CO2 Emissions (grams / bhp-hr) Fuel Consumption (gallons / 100 bhphr) MHD Engines 2014 (voluntary) 502 4.93 2017 487 4.78 2014 (voluntary) 475

4.67 2017 460 4.52 HHD Engines 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. PC-11: The Next Generation Expected First Licensing Date January 1, 2016 Driven by changes in engine technology to meet emissions, renewable and fuel economy standards to meet CO2 and other GHG emissions Engine Test Obsolescence (Hardware Becoming Unavailable) Two separate and distinct sub-categories:

Higher HTHS (15w-40, 3.5 HTHS) Preserves historical HD viscosity limits and backwards compatibility Lower HTHS (10w-30, 3.0 HTHS) Provides fuel efficiency benefits while maintaining equivalent durability Manufacturers will determine applicability and backwards compatibility Overall, PC-11 will have similar tests to CJ-4, but will define a higher performance oil for conventional grades and introduce low HTHS heavyduty oils for fuel economy 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Not tonot bebecopied, reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Confidential and Proprietary. ThisReserved. document should copied, shared,

shared, ororreproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation PC-11: Effects on Engine Oil Requirements Fuel economy Long oil drains Oxidation stability Aeration control Shear stability Biodiesel compatibility Wear protection 5 new tests requested Mack T-13 Wear/Oxidation Test DDC/Daimler Scuffing Test CAT C-13 Aeration Test

Oxidation Test Shear Stability Test 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. M iles P er Gallon (M P G) The #1 Driver for NA PCMO Coordinated EPA Greenhouse Gas Standards 60 ~ 163 grams per mile of CO2 in 2025 52.5 mpg Corporate Average Fuel Economy ~ 250 grams per mile of CO2 in 2017 35.5 mpg 50 40 Fleet average is ~340 grams

per mile of CO2 today (29.7mpg in 2012) 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Model Year Passenger Cars Combined Cars & Trucks Light Trucks

Source: NHTSA.gov 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. General Passenger Car Trend Summary Engines will get smaller & more efficient Engines will be more flexible in operation for better overall fuel efficiency Direct injection gasoline designs will become more common >30% of market by 2015 Light duty diesel use will increase but with minimal market impact projected Transmissions will get smaller, lighter viscosity, dual clutch, more gears Oils will have increased operational stress and longer application life OEMs will promote use of technology to improve combustion efficiency and fuel economy and expect advanced lubricant technology to ensure no warranty problems for these new designs 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation.

GF-6 Update API First License Date September 30, 2016 ILSAC GF-6 development has been initiated GF-6A for current ILSAC grades GF-6B for new low HTHS grades for Japanese engines (0W-16) Draft specification highlights: Improved cleanliness (WPD improvement in Seq IIIG) Improved viscosity control (Pvis improvement in Seq IIIG) Significantly improved fuel economy performance (0.5% for each stage FEI) Several new performance requirements proposed: Timing chain wear, LSPI Test developments underway: Sequence IIIH Oxidation GM or Chrysler Sequence IVB Valvetrain Wear Toyota Sequence VH Sludge & Timing Chain Wear Ford Sequence VIE Fuel Economy Surveillance Panel 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. 14

Industrial Trends Courtesy of Siemens MD Market Drivers Tier 4 emission standards driving hydraulic efficiency increases with mobile equipment OEMs Equipment Impacts More efficient pumps Reduced size and weight of equipment Extended drain intervals Lubricant Enablers More shear-stable VIIs for increased efficiency Better seal compatibility at longer drain intervals Higher oxidation stability Better sludge and varnish control for gas turbines Improved heat transfer formulation styles 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation. Summary Government regulations driving

Emissions reductions Fuel economy improvements Efficiency improvements Hardware operating conditions becoming more severe Smaller sumps Higher temperatures Higher loads Longer drain intervals Lubricant industry must work closely with OEMs to evolve technologies to enable equipment changes 2012 Afton Chemical Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Not to be copied, shared, or reproduced in any media without the express written permission of Afton Chemical Corporation.

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