Result Based Planning Trilochan Paudyal Pratistha koirala

RESULT BASED PLANNING 2074/03/02 Trilochan Poudyal Pratistha Koirala Activity 2 The Puzzle Game 3 The outline

4 Activity or process orientation vs. Result orientation in organizations Elements of Result Result based planning process and key considerations Plan 5

Plan Written account of intended future course of action (scheme) aimed at achieving specific goal(s) or objective(s) within a specific timeframe. It explains in detail what needs to be done, when, how, and by whom, and often includes best case, expected case, and worst case scenarios Economic Planning A deliberate and conscious attempt by the state to formulate decisions on how the factors of production shall

be allocated among different uses or industries, thereby determining how much of total goods and services shall be produced in one or more ensuing periods M P Todaro (Economic Development, 11th Edition, 2012, P 513) 6 Long Term: more than 5 years Medium Term: less than 3/5 years Short Term: for one year or less 7

Traditionally Activity Based Implementation Contemporary Result Based Planning Traditionally 8

Activities or Process What activities we do? Output What are the immediate output? Impact or Outcome What results do we achieve?

RBM 9 Timeline 10 Early Projects (Log frame; Cost-Benefit Analysis) 70s Sectoral Programs (Results Frameworks; Performance Monitoring Plans) Mid 80s

Mid 90s Country-Wide and Agency-Level RBM Systems (Medium-term Plans; Annual Reports) Multi-County Frameworks Early 00s (Global Goals; Common Indicators; Development Effectiveness Reports) Historical Context 11

The concern was to do things right rather than doing right things. In 1960s, Planning, Pragramming and Budgeting were developed in order to ensure accountability. In 1970s, MBOs were introduced.

During 1970s and 80s, program management and activities were introduced(CPM, PERT, Gantt Chart). Beyond 1980s, focus shifted to quality control( QA tools, ISOs, TQM). Beyond 1990s, RBM was introduced. 12 Results Revolution was introduced to counter Aid Fatigue. Tools like LOG Frames were developed.

MDGs in 2000s. The future is changing so is the approaches of Result Management (SDGs). What are results? 13 Results are changes in a state or condition that derive from a cause-and-effect relationship. There are three types of such changes.

Outputs Outcomes Impact; that can be set in motion by a development intervention. The changes can be intended or unintended, positive and/ or negative. 14

Results are consequences of actions taken to meet certain purposes. An effect arising from something The success or benefit obtained from a course of action Two major elements to remember: The notion of CHANGE which involves a visible transformation in the group, the organization or the society or country. The notion of CAUSALITY illustrating the cause and effect relationship between an action and the results achieved.

15 Change language rather than the customary Action language. An improvement (in the health conditions)

An increase (of the revenues of a given group or community) An increase (in the Gross National Product) A strengthening (of the capacities of local NGOs) An increase (in the girls scholarship rate) A reduction (in the infant mortality rate) Domino Effect SMART Results basics in daily life 16 Inputs Output Impact Result

Output Result Outcome Result Operational vs. Developmental Results 17 Inputs Activities Operational results The adm./mgmt.

product of agency, its programmes or projects Output Outcom e Impac t Developmental results An actual change in the state of human devt. that is the logical

consequence of investment in development Terminologies 18 Output Outputs are changes in skills or abilities and

capacities of individuals or institutions, or the availability of new products and services that result from the completion of activities within a development intervention within the control of the organization. Outputs are the first level of results. They are the most immediate effects of an activity, the results over which we have most control. They are achieved with the resources provided and within the time period specified (short term). 19 Outcome

Outcomes represent changes in the institutional and behavioral capacities for development conditions that occur between the completion of outputs and the achievement of goals. It has medium time frame. Outcomes are the likely or achieved medium-term effects of an interventions outputs. Outcomes are the second level of results. We have less control over outcomes than over outputs, but they are essential because they represent the tangible changes we are trying to bring about in our work. 20

Goal A specific end result desired or expected to occur as a consequence, at least in part, of an intervention or activity. It is the higher order objective that will assure national capacity building to which a development intervention is intended to contribute. 21

Impact Impacts are the primary and secondary long-term effects of an intervention Impact implies changes in peoples lives. This might include changes in knowledge, skill, behaviour, health or living

conditions for children, adults, families or communities. Impacts are the third level of results Such changes are positive or negative long-term effects on identifiable population groups produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended. These effects can be economic, socio-cultural, institutional, environmental, technological or of other types. 22 Activity Actions taken or work performed through which inputs, such as funds, technical assistance and other types of resources,

are mobilized to produce specific outputs. 23 Inputs The financial, human, material, technological and information resources used for development interventions. The results chain 24

The causal sequence for a development intervention that stipulates the necessary sequence to achieve desired results beginning with inputs, moving through activities and outputs, and culminating in individual outcomes and those that influence outcomes for the community, goal/impacts and feedback. It is based on a theory of change, including underlying assumption The results chain 25

26 Key stages of result formulation 27 Situational Analysis Prioritization Formulating the result Exercise 28

The traffic police has recently rolled back the debatable decision of fining the jaywalkers. Identify different categories of results in case of: Continuity of previous decision of fining. Current decision of waving the fine. Result Based

Management 29 RBM is a management strategy by which all actors, contributing directly or indirectly to achieving a set of results, ensure that their processes, products and services contribute to the achievement of desired results. The actors in turn use information and evidence on actual results to inform decision making on the design, resourcing and delivery of programmes and activities

as well as for accountability and reporting. Key Steps 30 Assess: What is the current situation? Think: What caused it? Who is involved? Envision: What are we going to achieve?

Plan: How are we going to do it? With whom? When? With what resources? Do: Get it done. How is it going? Do we need to adapt? Review: What went well/badly? What can we learn for next time? 31 A good RBM management is a must 32 Why RBM? 33

Improved focus on results instead of activities Improved transparency Improved accountability Enhanced performance orientation Improved measurement of programme achievements Enhanced strategic focus

No choice, it is an industry standard To get more funds!! Key principles of RBM 34 Accountability Ownership Inclusiveness Results at the Core 35

Elements of a Result Based Planning 36 Understand where we are ? Analysis of the socio- economic status , poverty and inequality and the strength and weaknesses of the economy and the countrys development effort. Finding gaps and strength. Clear vision as to what we want to achieve or where we want to reach over a medium to long term? Setting up of long term vision and objectives and targets for the medium term.

Clear understanding of the path as to how we achieve vision and objectives ? - Choosing options for better strategy to attain the objective/goals and designing policies and programs to ensure its outcome/output and impact relating to medium term objectives and long term vision . Clear understanding of the resources - Both human and capital and institutional setup to achieve set targets? Analysis of resource potential and availability, both domestic and foreign, in financing policies and programs and assessing institutional set ups to carry out plan implementation. Key Elements of RBM

37 Strategic-Orientation Goal-orientation Output-focussed Budgeting based on Performance indicators Performance evaluation based on results Accountability by results Result-oriented culture Managing for Development Result (MfDR) 38

Tools 39 Situational Analysis (PIN- Problems, Issues and Needs) Log Frame Problem Analysis SWOT Analysis

PESTEL Analysis Stakeholders Analysis Surveys Log-Frame 40 Indicators 41 An indicator is a pointer that helps you to measure progress towards achieving results

All indicators must be accompanied by baselines and targets. Without these, measurement of change over time is not possible. Baselines establish the value of the indicator at the beginning of the planning period Targets describe expected values upon completion of the plan Performance monitoring of the indicator tells us about actual achievement, compared to the original target

There are two types of indicators: quantitative and qualitative 42 43 Quantitative Economic Growth Rate Rate of employment in the public sector Ratio of men and women in decision-making positions in the Government Qualitative Level of satisfaction of the beneficiaries. Perception of men on womens participation in the local Committee. Coherence between the management tools developed and the absorptive capacity of the beneficiaries.

Assumptions and Risks 44 Assumptions Risk A necessary condition for the achievement

of results at different levels. It is a potential event or occurrence beyond the control of the programme that could adversely affect the achievement of the desired results Not just the negative of an assumption Problem Analysis 45 Hole Sinking Ship Cargo

Ship Capsiz e Main Problem Causes Poor Maintenanc e Collision Sabotage Bad stowage

Bad Weather Root Causes Information Gathering 46 Brainstorming Cause and effect diagramming

Process flow mapping and Gap analysis Cause and Effect Diagram 47 Process Flow Mapping 48 End No Yes Threat detecte d Riot

Assess the level of threats, communicate and others Is deployment necessary? Resource Mobilization and actions taken Riots controlled

GAP Analysis 49 50 Exercise 51 Result s Impact Outco me Output

Performa nce Indicator s Responsi Implement bilities ation Period Resour Risk ce s Neede d

Assumpti ons Comme nt Result Based Monitoring and Evaluation 52 Results-based monitoring is a process of incessantly collecting and analyzing information on the extent to which results from the

implementation of a given plan, policy, programme or project have been achieved so as to compare it with the expectations. Results-based Evaluation is an undertaking that appraises relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, and sustainability of a given plan, policy, programme or project by making comparison of the outcomes of implementation with the intended results. MTEF 53 Medium Term Expenditure Framework 54

MTEF is a tool for determining the available resources and allocating these resources in line with government priorities. MTEF consists of a top-down resource envelope, a bottom up estimation of the current and medium-term costs of existing policy and, ultimately, the matching of these costs with available resources in the context of the annual budget process. The top-down resource envelope is fundamentally a macroeconomic model that indicates fiscal targets and estimates revenues and expenditures, To complement the macroeconomic model, the sectors engage in bottom-up reviews that begin by scrutinizing sector policies and

activities with an eye toward optimizing intra-sectoral allocations MTEF Can 55 Improve macroeconomic balance by developing a multi-year resource framework (expenditure & revenue); Assist in improving resource allocation between & across sectors;

Improve predictability of funding for line ministries. Objectives of MTEF 56 Improved macroeconomic balance, especially fiscal discipline

Better inter- and intra-sectoral resource allocation Greater budgetary predictability for line ministries More efficient use of public monies Greater political accountability for public expenditure outcomes through more legitimate decision making processes Greater credibility of budgetary decision making (political restraint) MTEF 57 I. Table: The Six Stages of a

Comprehensive MTEF CHARACTERISTICS STAGE Development of Macroeconomic/Fiscal Framework II. Development of Sectoral Programs III. Development of Sectoral Expenditure Frameworks IV. Definition of Sector Resource Allocations V. Preparation of Sectoral Budgets VI. Final Political Approval

Macroeconomic model that projects revenues and expenditure in the medium term (multi-year) Agreement on sector objectives, outputs, and activities Review and development of programs and subprograms Program cost estimation Analysis of inter- and intra-sectoral trade-offs Consensus-building on strategic resource allocation

Setting medium term sector budget ceilings (cabinet approval) Medium term sectoral programs based on budget ceilings Presentation of budget estimates to cabinet and parliament for approval Procedure

58 General problems in applying RBM 59 Difficult to apply causal logic, especially in relation to complex, in-transparent or multi-faceted processes Difficult to learn: RBM is not intuitive, not easily 'taught', years of usage required to

achieve common understanding and practice Difficult to integrate, e.g. integrating gender and HR concerns into the results chain and in indicators General problems in applying RBM (Contd.) 60

Difficult to revise, and therefore often becomes fixed Difficult to measure: multitude of indicator types, difficulties in choosing a reasonable number, reliance on unmeasurable indicators, seeking visibility in indicators, weak indicator tracking Difficult to attribute, especially at Outcome level (e.g. institution xxx, partner yyy is accountable but not fully responsible) Conclusion 61

Result-based Planning System is necessary for : Effectiveness Efficiency Accountability Transparency It contributes on: enlarging the size of the economy, leveling the playing field for investment Ensure contribution of all in growth process

sustain the present level of achievements benefit to all sections of society improve economic growth. Way Forward 62

Frameworks/tools help in design but are not panacea Form commitment of leadership needed to proceed results-based reforms Adopt sequential approaches linking broadbased and pilots Institutionalization and mainstreaming is necessary Capacities need to be enhanced Linking incentive structure with results is vital for the success References 63

UNDG: Result Based Management Handbook RBM in UNDP: Overview and General Principles Result Based Management Approach, Workshop Manual for Facilitators-CDEMA An Introduction to Result Based ManagementADB National Monitoring and Evaluation GuidelinesNPC Result Based Management- Lok Nath Bhushal Ten steps to result based monitoring and

evaluation system- The World Bank 64 Dont tell people how to do things; tell them what to do and let them surprise you with the results (George S. Patton, US WW II General) 65 Thank You