Project on Foresight and Democracy Round Table 1 Rockefeller ...

Project on Foresight and Democracy Round Table 1 Rockefeller ...

Project on Foresight and Democracy FFCOI Round Table Exercise Rockefeller Brothers Fund Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis Co-Principal Investigators DTRA 6363 Walker Lane Alexandria, VA 8 May 2019 Project on Foresight and Democracy Overview of the Project Question: How will the sectors of our population regarding age, race, gender, social status be impacted by AI, synthetic biology, climate disruption and Panopticon in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons and Government? Primary, secondary, tertiary? Discussion

5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 2 Overview of the Project Overall purpose of the project The overall goal of the project, as we have stated in our application to the RBF, is to test the proposition that foresight can be used to strengthen democracy by expanding awareness of multiple alternative futures, under conditions that permit comparative analysis of courses of action, and as a byproduct of counter-acting the effects of hyperpartisanship. Function of the Round Table Process The Round Table Process is the means by which we test this proposition. It accomplishes this by: (1) assembling a small, broad-based group of persons who are experienced as observers of and participants in societal issues; (2) familiarizing this group with basic foresight methodology; (3) introducing the group to a range of very powerful long-range trends; facilitating discussion of these trends in terms of societal impact; (4) observing and characterizing changes of awareness and approach within the group. The first Round Table meeting was comprised of eleven persons of extraordinary personal accomplishment, and broad societal perspective. It was assisted by an outside

substantive expert on trends, and by members of the Standing Advisory Group who joined to provide expertise on the use of foresight analysis. We expect that to be the pattern for the next two meetings. As the minutes indicate, the discussion was very dynamic. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 3 Overview of the Project Round Table series The project centers on three sessions of the Round Table: (1) to explore major drivers of change that arise from "disruptive" consequences of trends in technology; (2) to explore major drivers of change that arise from "disruptive" demographic trends; and (3) to apply foresight methods as a means for systematic, long-range, integrated discussion of societal implications. The first Round Table meeting occurred on 17 April. The second meeting will take place on 15 May. The third will take place on 19 June. Detailed minutes will be used to fully inform those who were not present. A set of minutes of this type has been circulated to cover the first Round Table discussion.

Second Round Table: thematic organization of time Morning: Data presented to members regarding the transformation of the United States population from a system based on majority plus minorities, to a system comprised of minorities. Afternoon: Round Table Members discuss long range implications of these changes. SAG members assist from foresight perspective. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 4 Technological and Demographic Challenges How will the demographic changes facing the nation be impacted by the technological challenges identified Advanced Artificial Intelligence: Upper-tier human skills displaced by machines learning from data, rather than from us. The almighty algorithm. Humans in the loop, but nugatory. Occult value systems. Hyper-speed. Super system of systems. Impact on democratic theory? Synthetic Biology: All forms of carbon-based life subject to redesign. Profit and ambition govern development.

Development essentially chaotic in its implications. Direct intervention in human genetic codes. Mimetic machine systems interacting with humans. Low entry costs. World wide activity. Implications for democratic theory? Anthropocene climate: Chemistry, thermodynamics, Biology interacting rapidly and chaotically. Not possible to return to status quo ante, where change in global climate systems was slow enough to allow evolutionary and cultural adaptation. No longer contemplating the approach of chaos, but in its midst. Best case? Self-medicate the climate: treating symptoms of climate change rather than preventive approach. Implications for democratic theory? Panopticon social order: Total surveillance. Anticipatory punishment based on earliest symptoms of deviance from a political defined behavioral norm. Collective Man vrs. Enlightenment Man. Augmented by powerful AI systems for manipulating social behavior and thought. 5/15/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 5 Project on Foresight and Democracy Forces on the System Societal forces Technological Forces Economic Forces Environmental Forces

Political Forces Democracy as a System AI, Synthetic Biology, Climate Disruption, Panopticon The Democratic Commons Government Sectors such as Age, Race, Gender, Social Status How will the sectors of our population regarding age, race, gender, social status be impacted by AI, synthetic biology, climate disruption and Panopticon in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons and Government? Primary, secondary, tertiary? 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 6

Backup 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 7 Project on Foresight and Democracy Agenda The agenda will be fluid but include four topics. Times are approximate. State of Democracy: falling confidence in its adaptive capacity; growing demand for change; gridlock over policy responses. Support for authoritarian solutions is growing. Eyes not on the future. (one hour) Next Generation Challenges: Both technology driven and demographic. Hockey-stick interactive. Concurrent. Complex. Global. May sharply intensify anti-democratic trends. Could bring to an end the chapter of human development that began in the West, with the Enlightenment. (one hour) Anticipatory response/theory: (1) Foresight methods to provide earlier alert based on first signals. Tracking. (2) Systems-based approach to promote awareness of primary, secondary, tertiary consequences of trends; (3) Systems approach for better understanding of actions taken and not taken. (working lunch) (one hour) Anticipatory response/demonstrate: (1) system map; (2) futures matrix (afternoon session). (3)

Evaluation (two hours) 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 8 Project on Foresight and Democracy (one hour) State of Democracy: falling confidence in its adaptive capacity; growing demand for change; grid-lock over policy responses. Support for authoritarian solutions is growing. Eyes not on the future. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 9

Project on Foresight and Democracy Next - Generation Challenges: Both demographic and technology*. Hockey-stick interactive. Concurrent. Complex. Global. May sharply intensify anti-democratic trends. Could bring to an end the chapter of human development that began in the West, with the Enlightenment. (one hour) * Technology challenges were the subject of the April Round Table 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 10 Demographic Challenges Mark Lopez, Pew Foundation How will the demographic changes facing the nation be impacted by the technological challenges identified Advanced Artificial Intelligence: upper-tier human skills displaced by machines learning from data, rather than

from us. The almighty algorithm. Humans in the loop, but nugatory. Occult value systems. Hyper-speed. Super system of systems. Impact on democratic theory? Synthetic Biology: all forms of carbon-based life subject to redesign. profit and ambition govern development. development essentially chaotic in its implications. direct intervention in human genetic codes. mimetic machine systems interacting with humans . low entry costs, world wide activity. Implications for democratic theory? Anthropocene climate: chemistry, thermodynamics, biology interacting rapidly and chaotically. not possible to return to status quo ante, where change in global climate systems was slow enough to allow evolutionary and cultural adaptation. No longer contemplating the approach of chaos, but in its midst. Best case? Self-medicate the climate: treating symptoms of climate change rather than preventive approach. Implications for democratic theory? Panopticon social order: total surveillance. anticipatory punishment based on earliest symptoms of deviance from a political defined behavioral norm. Collective Man vrs. Enlightenment Man. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 11 Project on Foresight and Democracy Forces on the System Societal forces

Technological Forces Economic Forces Environmental Forces Political Forces Democracy as a System Artificial Intelligence The Commons Sectors such as Race/ Ethnicity How will the sectors of our population regarding race/ethnicity be impacted by artificial intelligence as we described it in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons? Primary, secondary, tertiary? 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 12 Project on Foresight and Democracy

Forces on the System Societal forces Technological Forces Economic Forces Environmental Forces Political Forces Democracy as a System Synthetic Biology The Commons Sectors such as Gender How will the sectors of our population regarding gender be impacted by synthetic biology as we described it in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons? Primary, secondary, tertiary? 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 13

Project on Foresight and Democracy Forces on the System Societal forces Technological Forces Economic Forces Environmental Forces Political Forces Democracy as a System Climate Disruption The Commons Sectors such as Age How will the sectors of our population regarding age be impacted by climate disruption as we described it in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons? Primary, secondary, tertiary? 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis

14 Project on Foresight and Democracy Forces on the System Societal forces Technological Forces Economic Forces Environmental Forces Political Forces Democracy as a System Panopticon The Commons Sectors such as Social Status How will the sectors of our population regarding social status be impacted by Panopticon as we described it in the future and how will those changes impact the democratic commons? Primary, secondary, tertiary? 5/8/19

Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 15 Anticipatory response/theory Review Social systems are complex. Governance systems are linear. Complex change exceeds response time of linear system of governance. Extreme political polarization delays solutions. Destruction of compromise. Implications for democratic theory? Defaults are chaos and/or anti-democratic methods. Possible Solution? (1) Foresight methods to provide earlier alert based on first signals. Tracking. (2) Systems-based approach to promote awareness of primary, secondary, tertiary consequences of trends;

(3) Systems approach for better understanding of actions taken and not taken. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 16 The World is a System What is a System? An entity with interdependent parts that cannot be pulled apart and still be a system Why do I say the world a system? Because it is made

up of many smaller systems all interacting with one another There are a few characteristics that all systems share that I call system rules 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 17 The World is a System A few of the system rules include All real world systems have open boundaries which means that forces outside the boundary influence what is inside and vice versa they are in a constant process of interaction with their environment and their many stakeholders and must adapt to their environment in order to survive

All social systems are complex... They have people as elements in their system. Complex systems cannot be predicted or controlled but they can be influenced if understood well. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 18 The World is a System Large complex social systems, such as governments tend to face similar forces on them from the outside STEEP

5/8/19 Societal Technological Economic Environmental Political Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 19 The World is a System Problems are best solved, not by breaking them up into "functional" bites, but by getting into the next larger system and solving them through integrative mechanisms.

5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 20 Anticipatory response/application Possible Solution to the fact that social systems are complex? (1) Foresight methods to provide earlier alert based on first signals. Tracking. (2) Systems-based approach to promote awareness of primary, secondary, tertiary consequences of trends; (3) Systems approach for better understanding of actions taken and not taken. 5/8/19

Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 21 Foresight Methodologies (featured in Anticipatory Governance Practical Upgrades) Back-casting: A method of working backward from a hypothetical future event (typically a desired goal) to the present in order to visualize short- and medium-term steps, necessary and sufficient conditions, and possible sequences of events that would lead there. Course of action analysis: A method for assessing the cost, impact and risk associated with alternative action plans. Beginning with a set of alternative plans (courses of action or COAs), the costs, impact and risks of each alternative are expanded upon and then assigned weights that are then measured and compared against each other based on decision rules that reflect priorities. Cross-impact analysis: A method for forecasting the probabilities of events based on their potential interactions with each other. Each hypothetical in a set is assigned an initial probability; conditional probabilities are determined using a matrix to consider their potential interactions with each other. Delphi method: A method of forecasting by committee that uses a questionnaire to accumulate foresight analysis by experts whose responses are compiled and then re-circulated (anonymously) in order to reduce the range of responses and close in on expert consensus about the future. Real-Time Delphi: An online version of the Delphi questionnaire that harnesses expert opinion about the future on an accelerated

basis. Futures wheel: A structured brainstorming technique that uses a wheel-and-spoke like graphic arrangement to consider the primary and secondary impacts around a central trend or hypothetical event. Implications wheel: A structured brainstorming technique that arranges second, third and fourth order events around a central trend or hypothetical events, and uses probabilities to score potential implications. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 22 Foresight Methodologies (featured in Anticipatory Governance Practical Upgrades) Issues-analysis: A method of systematically unpacking the dilemmas, cross-category implications, and unasked questions that arise from trends, hypothetical future events, and alternative policy choices. Historical analogy: a method of using the dynamics of events in the past to understand the dynamics underlying current and future events. Horizon scanning: systematic monitoring and examination of current events (across categories) in order to detect early signs of potential major impending developments and how they might influence the future so that early action can be taken. Environmental scanning: systematic monitoring of an internal and/or external environment in order to detect opportunities and threats in advance so that early action can be taken.

Morphological analysis: a method for structuring and investigating sets of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, nonquantifiable problem spaces. Roadmapping: a technique of planning that identifies a sequence of goals, prospective future developments, and future onramps and off-ramps for decisionmaking. Robust decision-making: a method of relating short-term policy interventions to different clusters of long-term futures. Scenarios: case studies of the future that depict in detailed narrative how events might lead from the present to an envisioned future. Scenarios should come in sets covering a range of possible futures that provide a means to visualize outcomes of alternative courses of action, analyze their hypothetical consequences under different combinations of assumptions, and link logical sequences of events. 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 23 Foresight Methodologies (featured in Anticipatory Governance Practical Upgrades) Simulation/Modeling: a quantitative method for understanding the interactions of a system using a prototype, computer program, or other simplified representation of a real system. Models and simulations permit decisionmakers to experiment with interactive variables (often with large data sets) for a specified duration so as to gain understanding about a system's behavior, probabilities, and range of possible outcomes. State of the Future Index: an index that measures the 10-year outlook for the future based on key variables and forecasts that collectively depict whether the future promises to be better or worse.

STEEP Implication Analysis: a method for systematically analyzing the social (S), technological (T), economic (E), environmental (E) and political (P) implications and issues related to a trend, event, decision or policy. SWOT analysis: a method of analyzing and assigning weight to an operations internal factorsstrengths (S) and weaknesses (W) and external factorsopportunities (O) and threats (T)so as to strategically match resources and capabilities to the environment. Trajectory Analysis: a method of assessing the directionality of trends and oncoming events so as to create manageable pathways that can aid policymakers in identifying engagement opportunities. Trend Projection: an extrapolation of a current trend line into the future based on historical data, rates of change, and other essential variables. Projections are based on an assumption that factors will be held constant with no looming discontinuities . 5/8/19 Leon S. Fuerth and Sheila R. Ronis 24

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