How to Determine Jobs in Demand What methods

How to Determine Jobs in Demand What methods

How to Determine Jobs in Demand What methods do states use? Rebecca Rust Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections Workforce Information Advisory Council (WIAC) June 22, 2017 1 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov How To Determine Jobs in Demand Use of LMI can improve the alignment of education and training to better meet the hiring demands of business This can be done by determining in-demand occupations 2 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

bls.gov How to Determine Jobs in Demand Using BLS and State/Area Projections 3 Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the states Employment Projections program It could be all those occupations growing faster than the average or some other selected growth rate threshold percent Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the states Employment Projections program that also meet a selected wage threshold It could be those fastest growing occupations that pay a wage equal to or greater than $15.00 per hour, for example Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the states Employment Projections program that also meet a selected threshold for number of new jobs

It could be those fastest growing occupations that also gain at least a 1,000 new jobs or more per year, for example U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov How to Determine Jobs in Demand Using BLS and State/Area Projections (Continued) 4 Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the states Employment Projections program that come from specified targeted industries for economic development Manufacturing could be targeted, for example Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the states Employment Projections program for a specified education/training level It could be for the fastest occupations requiring more than a high school degree but less than a bachelors degree, for example

Highest number of new jobs (by specified level) from the states Employment Projections program This listing could have thresholds added on as shown above, such as wages, targeted industries, and/or education levels U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov How To Determine Jobs in Demand Using alternative data bases or customized employer needs 5 Highest number of job openings or fastest gain in openings from a Job Vacancy Survey or Skills-Gap Survey This could be from a state survey that asks employers about unmet hiring needs Highest number of online job ads or fastest gain in job ads by occupation This could be from the states job bank or other source, such as Help

Wanted OnLine from the Conference Board, for example Highest number or fastest growing online job ads and/or those hardest to fill This could be reposted online jobs Largest gap between occupational demand and supply This could be comparing demand occupations (from Employment Projections or online ads) compared to supply (which could be training completers and job seekers registered in the states career centers) Employer needs for customized training to meet specific hiring needs This could be from business partnerships, or a new firm opening up in an area, or from coordination efforts of business, workforce, economic development, and education all working together U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Which methods are states actually using?

Results of the BLOC survey 75% - projected job openings More states took an ordinal approach, ranking occupations by number of projected job openings, than taking a cardinal approach (only looking at occupations with at least 1,000 projected job openings, for example) 69% - growth rate from employment projections 51% - online job ads 27% - targeted industries 27% - supply and demand analysis

22% - job vacancy, skills gap, or other employer surveys Note: 69% use a composite method of more than one metric 6 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Which methods are states actually using? Results of the BLOC survey (Continued) States refine their lists with certain metrics: 71% - occupational wages Usually mean or median OES wage for the state 47% - education and training levels Some states have several lists of jobs in demand covering different levels 22% - base year minimum employment cutoff

18% - projected number of new jobs One state looks at OES 3 year comparisons 7 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Future Ways to Determine Jobs in Demand OES as a Time Series 8 Data that are statistically designed to be measured and compared over time are a time series Occupations that have both positive employment and wage growth can indicate

that demand is greater than supply This data series can be considered a new labor market indicator of current (or shortterm) in-demand occupations U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Improved alignment of education and training with the hiring needs of business using in-demand occupations does what? This improved alignment drives the allocation of training resources, leading to: 9

Higher placement and retention rates Improved reemployment Lowered UI benefit and welfare costs Stronger business expansion and retention Expanded economic growth Improved standards of living U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Contact Information Rebecca Rust Assistant Commissioner Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections 202-691-5701 [email protected] 10 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

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