Economics 980aa THE RISE OF ASIA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY with Professor Dale W. Jorgenson Lecture 1
IS ASIAS MIRACLE A MYTH? January 24, 2018 Harvard University Department of Economics Spring 2018 THE RISE OF ASIA AND
THE WORLD ECONOMY 1. Is Asias Miracle a Myth? 2. China: Worlds Largest Economy 3. India: The Most Rapidly Growing Economy 4. Reviving Japanese Economic Growth
KRUGMAN: 1994, 2005, and 2013 Paul Krugman, The Myth of Asian Miracles, Foreign Affairs, November-December 1994: From the perspective of the year 2010, current projections of Asian supremacy extrapolated from recent trends may well look as silly as 1960s-vintage forecasts of
Soviet industrial supremacy did in from the perspective of the Brezhnev years. Paul Krugman Blog, New York Times, October 31, 2005: [I]n the mid-1990s I made some modestly pessimistic predictions about Asia back when everyone else was wildly optimistic. When a terrible financial crisis struck, people said I had been proved right. My
response was that I had been 90 percent wrong, its just that everyone else had been 150 percent wrong. ORIENTAL PEARL TOWER, SHANGHAI 1990 VS. 2010
KRUGMAN 1994: A SUMMARY According to the results of growth accounting, Asian economic miracles cannot persist, since they involve replication without innovation like the former Soviet Union. Advanced nations like the U.S. have achieved sustained growth in per capita income over the past 150 years by a continual increase in national income for each
unit of input. Singapore is Krugmans leading example: Economic growth involves a huge investment effort and rapid growth of the labor force, mainly by immigration. But this is far from typical of Asia. Suppose, he says, that China is like Singapore: If Chinas growth is seven percent per year rather than ten percent, it will make a huge difference.
PAUL KRUGMAN 2013: HES BAAACK! Paul Krugman, Hitting Chinas Wall, New York Times, July 18, 2013: China is in big trouble. Were not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The
countrys whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.
THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS: THE ASIAN MODEL OF GROWTH Output, Factor Accumulation, and Productivity Growth in the Four Tigers Each of the Four Tigers Increased Labor Force Participation and Educational Attainment
Each Had a High and Rising Ratio of Investment to GDP Productivity Growth Averaged Two Percent per Year for Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan and 0.2 Percent for Singapore, Accounting for a Quarter of Economic Growth from 1966-1990. Productivity Growth Is Comparable to That of OECD and Latin American Economies During the Same Period
PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH MEASURING PRODUCTIVITY THE FOUR TIGERS
GROWTH RATES INVESTMENT/GDP RATIO TFP GROWTH: SINGAPORE, HONG KONG
TFP GROWTH: SOUTH KOREA TFP GROWTH: TAIWAN TFP GROWTH: AVERAGE AND COMPARATIVE
RECONCILING ESTIMATES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PRODUCTIVITY MEASURING CAPITAL
TYRANNY OF NUMBERS: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION The results of this paper should be heartening to economists and policy-makers alike. If the remarkable post-war rise of East Asian living standards is the result of one-shot increases in output
brought about by the rise in participation rates, investment to GDP ratios, and educational standards and intersectoral transfers from agriculture to other sectors then economic theory is admirably well equipped to explain the East Asian experience. Neo-classical growth theory, with its emphasis on level changes in income and its well-articulated quantitative framework, can
explain most of the difference between the performance of the [Asian Tigers] and other post-war economies. Alwyn Young, p. THE FOUR TIGERS: HAS ANYTHING CHANGED? Growth of Output: World Bank International Comparison Program
Growth of Inputs: Jorgenson and Vu, The Rise of Asia Growth of Total Factor Productivity Is the Difference between Growth of Output and Inputs Growth Rates of the Four Tigers Have Fallen, but Rates of Productivity Growth Are About the Same
THE RISE OF ASIA AND THE NEW ECONOMIC ORDER THE SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and Productivity CAPITAL INPUT GROWTH: Information Technology and Non-Information Technology
LABOR INPUT GROWTH: Hours Worked and Labor Quality. PRODUCTIVITY: Output per Unit of Input CAPITAL INPUT GROWTH INPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY INFORMATON TECHNOLOGY: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION IT AND NON-IT: IT vs. Non-IT Capital Services WORLD INPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT
G7 INPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT ASIA 7 INPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT DEVELOPING ASIA INPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT
SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH LABOR INPUT GROWTH: Hours Worked and Labor Quality TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: Output versus Input
SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP SOURCES OF WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH SOURCES OF G7 ECONOMIC GROWTH
SOURCES OF ASIA 7 ECONOMIC GROWTH SOURCES OF MAJOR DEVELOPING ASIA ECONOMIC GROWTH
THE RISE OF ASIA: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Our first objective is to allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity. Surprisingly, input growth greatly predominates. Productivity growth accounted for 14.1 percent of world growth during 19901995, while input growth accounted for the rest, as shown in Table 2.
Productivity growth contributed 17.8 percent of growth in 19952000, but surged to 36.4 percent during the worldwide boom in 20002005, before plunging back to only 7.2 percent in 20052009. Jorgenson and Vu (2011) THE ASIAN MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Just as predicted by the neo-classical model, growth rates have declined and are approaching a long-run equilibrium determined by growth of population and the Harrod-neutral productivity growth rate. Japan entered this phase around 1973; the Four Tigers entered at various times, beginning around 1980. China is about to enter this phase and Indias growth rate was still rising in 2010. We will have to
address the issue of whether India will be following the Asian model outlined by Alwyn Young or will fall short through deficient factor accumulation. For this purpose we need growth accounts that are comparable to other Asian countries. IMPORTANT DATES/DEADLINES
Wednesday, Jan. 24 @ 5 p.m.: Deadline to submit course applications to [email protected] Friday, Jan. 26 before 9 a.m. (or even sooner): Students will be notified if they have been selected to enroll in the course. Friday, Jan. 26 before 12 noon: Students should submit their Presentation Topic Preferences [email protected]
Friday, Jan. 26 by 5 p.m.: Students should sign up for office hours appointment for either Jan. 29 or Feb. 6.
What Is A Scientist? And more importantly, how can I become one? PowerPoint by Veronica Gould. Before we can know what a scientist is, we have to understand science. Science is systematic knowledge of the physical world gained through ....
DC Stepper Motor Typical Use: Position Control Relative position (without feedback) Easy to control: # Steps moved = number of pulses in Desired Velocity Step Rate Inexpensive Good holding torque No brushes Size Range: 1.3"L 10 oz-in $12. 9"L 2000...
Hip Hop Culture and Rap Music A Reflection of African American History in the United States Musical Culture More Relevant than King Speeches Hip Hop: Today's Civil Rights Movement? THE HISTORY OF RAP The history of rap music has its...
Salford Royal Service AQuA Transition is a gradual process You are at the centre of it Aim to develop independence Support learning Management of condition To Summarise The process is adapted for those with learning disabilities Families are included in...
Mobile Broadband. Why choose ACN? ACN has partnered with Vodafone Australia. The Vodafone 4G network reaches 96.69% of the Australian metro population. Freedom of 12 month, 24 month or month-to-month plans. Plans with the latest tablet devices and portable modems
WIP: a community of risk management? SAA Endorsed. WIP endorsed as an SAA standard on Monday. The principles laid out in WIP have been incorporated into the Triangle Research Library Network's Intellectual Property Rights Strategy for Digitization of Modern Manuscript...
Neptune has one large moon, Triton A picture of Triton from the Voyager spacecraft Does it look geologically dead or geologically active? Triton has a 'retrograde' orbit (it goes around Neptune the wrong way) How do you think Triton became...
Each council shall elect a clerk who shall record the transactions of the council, keep its rolls of membership and attendance, maintain any required registers, preserve its records, and furnish extracts from them when required by another council of the...
Ready to download the document? Go ahead and hit continue!