Estimating the GHG mitigation potential of liberalization Peter

Estimating the GHG mitigation potential of liberalization Peter

Estimating the GHG mitigation potential of liberalization Peter Wooders, Senior Economist Climate Change, Energy and Trade 14 December 2009 Aim Estimate Potential GHG Savings Much has been made of the efforts of the WTO Doha Round attempt to agree to a list of Environmental Goods & Services (EGS) Tariffs and Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) would be eliminated from these EGS Implicit assumption that agreeing such a list would significantly reduce GHG emissions

This study estimates what the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential is for the Doha talks on environmental goods Environmental Goods Lists proposed to the WTO Over 400 goods originally discussed List of 153 by Friends of the EGS Group Submitted April 2007 Canada, the European Communities, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu, Switzerland, and the USA World Bank defined 43 of these as climate-friendly

Contents of the list of 153 Renewable Electricity Generation goods (not techs) But only including hydro-electricity up to 1 MW (mini) Rest of list would have nothing more than very minor impacts on GHG emissions Hydro, Wind and Biomass are the key technologies World Electricity Generation 2006 (18920 TWh) Wind Geothermal Solar 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%

Hydro 16.0% Tide and Wave 0.0% Coal 41.0% Additional World Electricity Generation from 2006 Nuclear 14.8% Gas 20.1% Oil 5.8%

Additional Electricity Generation (TWh) Biomass and waste 1.3% 16000 Tide and Wave 14000 Solar 12000 Geothermal

10000 Wind 8000 Biomass and waste 6000 Hydro 4000 Nuclear 2000 Oil

Gas 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 Coal Step 1: Potential uptake of technologies and impacts on GHG emissions IEA WEO 2008 projects new renewable uptake fpr the period 2006-2030 450 ppm ($180/tCO2), 550 ppm ($90/tCO2),

Reference scenarios (laissez faire no new policies) We assume renewables would replace coal or natural gas Increased renewables in 2030 avoid 1.0-7.7 GtCO2 Reduction of 6-28% of world emissions in 2030 Step 2: Drivers of uptake of technologies Barriers to renewable uptake widely accepted Relatively high cost, regulations, lack of investment in grids, etc. Trade liberalisation, or tariff removal, generally not listed

Key barrier clearly financial Feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio schemes typical premium US 5/kWh (US$50/MWh) To Wind and more commercial Step 3: Contribution of Trade Liberalisation Levelised generation costs for hydro, onshore wind and biomass US 4-10/kWh (US$40-100/MWh) Capital costs typically largest share Wind 55-75%, Hydro dominated by civil works Trade liberalisation only affects tradable fraction High for wind, low for Hydro

Import tariffs typically 0-15% $80/MWh * 60% * 75% * 5% = US$1.8/ Extra 2% of Renewables competitive with Gas Impact of Tariff Removal on GHG Emissions Tariff removal can make a contribution if it were part of a package of measures, for instance it is combined with a feed-in tariff the cost of renewable electricity declines relative to the cost of fossil-fuel generation. Without hydro, renewable savings 0.96.5 GtCO2 First order estimate is tariff removal

responsible for 5% of this (pro rata basis) What could be done next The current list would need to be significantly extended to increase its impact Industrial efficiency, transport, Buildings, CCS, etc. Goods generally less specific than renewables Extended lists would keep many problems dual use (same goods can be used for a range of technologies, of varying performance) Politics and commercial interests of WTO

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