漫谈金融全球化

漫谈金融全球化

, : , ; , . :

Prasad, Rogoff, Wei, and Kose, IMF, 2003 Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei, 2005 (JEL?) Turkey India U.S.A.

China Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Direct Channels Efficient international allocation of capital For capital-poor economieslower cost of capital, higher investment

Spillovers of technological and managerial expertise Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Indirect Channels Domestic financial sector development Specialization Disciplining device for macro policies

Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Effects on Volatility No strong implication for output volatility Consumption smoothing via international risk sharing => Lower consumption volatility

Growth Benefits of Financial Integration: Evidence About 20 studies of growth effects No effect: Mixed: Positive:

4 12 4 (Threshold Effect):Threshold Effect): , ; , . :

, , : Wei, 2000; Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych, 2003; Klein, 2005; Chinn and Ito, 2005. (Threshold Effect):Composition Effect): , ;

, . : vs. : Frankel and Rose; Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei; Frankel and Wei. The composition hypothesis Not all capital flows are equal FDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more

beneficial to growth than debt Desoto and Reisen 2001; Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005, JFE FDI is also less volatile than international bank loans -> More reliance on bank loans increases vulnerability to currency crashes Frankel and Rose, 1996; Frankel and Wei, 2005

0 Standard Deviation .02 .04 .06

.08 Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Standard Deviation) . FDI/GDP

Loan/GDP .5 C oefficient of Variation 1 1.5

2 2.5 3 Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Coefficient of Variation)

. FDI/GDP Loan/GDP :

? (Threshold Effect):2000, 2001); (Threshold Effect):2002) Corruption is linked to a composition of capital inflows away from FDI and towards bank loans. Feira and Mauro (Threshold Effect):2005): Higher institutional quality -> higher share of equitylike capital flows in total foreign liabilities.

: Albuqurque (Threshold Effect):2004 JIE): worse credit rating related to more (Threshold Effect):not less) FDI/total inflows. , ? :

. . . (Threshold Effect):2005), Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (Threshold Effect):2005): Low financial development + Low K/L ratio

-> inward FDI + capital outflow . IV for corruption IV for financial institution :

initial mortality of European colonizers , ; , . ? Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson :

: (Threshold Effect):legal origin) common law, ; civil law, .

? La Porta, De-silanes, Shleifer & Vishny : : Settler mortality and legal origin are not highly correlated.

: , FDI ( ). 2000 . ; , FDI .

. , .

,

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