Mankiw 5/e Chapter 10: Aggregate Demand I

Mankiw 5/e Chapter 10: Aggregate Demand I

macro CHAPTER TEN Aggregate Demand I macroeconomics fifth edition N. Gregory Mankiw PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved Giao im Keynes hiu c giao im Keynes, chng ta hy bt u bng vic xem xt cc yu t quyt nh chi tiu d kin. Chi tiu d kin (E) S tin m h gia nh, doanh nghip v chnh ph d kin chi ra mua hng ha v dch v.

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 2 Giao im Keynes Chng ta hy gi nh trong nn kinh t ng : NX = 0 + AD = E = C + I + G E: chi tiu d kin + Y = GDP thc t = chi tiu thc hin CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 3 Giao im Keynes Hm tiu dng: C C (Y T ) Gi nh: G G , T T

Bin chnh sch ti chnh ngoi sinh I I Bin u t d kin ngoi sinh Chi tiu d kin: CHAPTER 10 E C (Y T ) I G Aggregate Demand I slide 4 Giao im Keynes E chi tiu E =C +I +G

d kin 1 MPC Thu nhp, sn Y lng, CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 5 Giao im Keynes Chi tiu d kin ph thuc vo thu nhp v thu nhp cao hn dn n mc tiu dng cao hn. dc ca ng ny chnh l khuynh hng tiu dng cn bin (MPC). MPC = C/Y

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 6 Chng ta gi nh rng nn kinh t ang trng thi cn bng khi chi tiu thc hin bng chi tiu d kin. Chi tiu thc hin = Chi tiu d kin Y CHAPTER 10 = Aggregate Demand I E slide 7 Trng thi cn bng

E Y=E 45 Y CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 8 Giao im Keynes E Y= E E =C +I +G Giao im Keynes Y Thu nhp cn bng

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 9 Giao im Keynes Nh vy giao im Keynes ch ra phng thc xc nh thu nhp Y ti mc u t d kin I v chnh sch ti chnh G v T cho trc. Chng ta c th s dng m hnh ny ch ra cch thc iu chnh thu nhp khi mt trong cc bin ngoi sinh ny thay i. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 10 S gia tng chi tiu ca chnh ph

= Y E E Ti Y1, chi tiu d kin tng thm mt lng tng ng= G E2 =C +I +G2 E1 =C +I +G1 G v vy cc DN phi gia tng sn lng v thu nhp t

trng thi cn bng mi. CHAPTER 10 Y E1 = Y1 Y Aggregate Demand I E2 = Y2 slide 11 Chng ta thy rng chnh sch ti chnh c tc dng khuych i thu nhp. ? Mc tng thu nhp cao hn mc tng mua hng ca chnh ph hay Y > G

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 12 Chnh sch ti chnh Y C I G Y C I G C G MPC Y G Chng ta chuyn v: (1 MPC) Y G CHAPTER 10

Trng thi cn bng Khi c s thay i do I = const do C = MPC * Y Nh vy ta c Y : 1 Y G 1 MPC Aggregate Demand I slide 13 Chnh sch ti chnh Vd: MPC = 0.8 1 Y G 1 MPC

1 1 G G 5 G 1 0.8 0.2 Khi mua hng ca CP tng 1 ng s lm cho thu nhp cn bng tng 5 ng. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 14 THU PHN TCH BIN PHP GIM THU CA CHNH PH. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I

slide 15 Li sut, u t v ng IS 1. IS (investment and saving) ng biu din cn bng I & S trong th trng hng ha v dch v. ng biu th mi quan h gia li sut v thu nhp trn th trng hng ha v dch v sao cho tng sn lng bng tng cu trong nn kinh t. IS = {(r*,Y*) : Y = AD} CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 16 ng IS PT ng IS: Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 17 dc ca ng IS Gi s c s ct gim li sut: r I E =C +I (r2 )+G E =C +I (r1 )+G I E Y E =Y

E r Y1 Y Y2 r1 r2 IS Y1 CHAPTER 10 Y2 Aggregate Demand I Y slide 18

dc ca ng IS ng IS tm tt mi quan h gia li sut v thu nhp rt ra t hm u t v giao im Keynes. Li sut cng thp , mc u t d kin cng cao do thu nhp cng cao. ng IS l ng dc xung CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 19 Chnh sch ti kha nh hng n ng IS 2 bin cng c ca chnh sch ti kha: G&T Vd: G

or T CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 20 Chnh sch ti kha v ng IS E =Y E =C +I (r )+G 1 2 E mc r bt k E =C +I (r1 ) +G1 G E Y ng IS dch

sang phi. r Y1 Y Y2 r1 1 Y G 1 MPC Y Y1 CHAPTER 10 IS1

Y2 Aggregate Demand I IS2 Y slide 21 Exercise: Shifting the IS curve Khi chnh ph gia tng thu th tc ng n ng IS nh th no? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 22 CCH GII THCH NG IS BNG VN VAY HY NH LI NG NHT THC S=I

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 23 Th trng tin t v ng LM ng LM l mi quan h gia li sut v thu nhp hnh thnh trn th trng tin t hiu mi quan h ny chng ta bt u bng vic xem xt li mt l thuyt n gin v li sut c gi l l thuyt v s a thch thanh khon CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 24 Chng ta thy giao im

Keynes t nn tng cho ng IS; l thuyt v s a thch thanh khon t nn tng cho ng LM. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 25 L thuyt ny gii thch v cung v cu v s d tin t thc t quy nh li sut nh th no. M : cung tin t v P: mc ga M/P: cung v s d tin t thc t CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 26

L thuyt v s a thch thanh khon gi nh cung v s d tin t thc t c nh nn: M CHAPTER 10 s P M P Aggregate Demand I slide 27 Cung tin M: bin chnh sch ngoi sinh do NHTW quyt nh P: bin ngoi sinh trong m hnh ny Gi nh mc gi l cho trc hay mc gi khng i v m hnh nghin

cu nhng vn trong ngn hn. M/P = const hay khng ph thuc vo li sut CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 28 Cung tin r li sut M P s M P s

M P M P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M/P S d tin t thc t slide 29 Cu tin Cu v s d tin t thc t: M P d r M

P s L(r ) L (r ) M P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M/P slide 30 Trng thi cn bng Li sut s iu chnh cho n khi lng cu v s d tin t thc t = cung tin t thc t

r M P r1 M P L(r ) Li sut cn bng CHAPTER 10 s Aggregate Demand I L (r ) M P M/P slide 31

Vd: Fed ct gim cung ng tin t. Vi P khng i th M/P s dch sang tri -> li sut tng ln; lng s d tin t thc t gim. CHAPTER 10 r r2 r1 L (r ) M2 M1 P P

Aggregate Demand I M/P slide 32 ng LM Ngoi mc li sut nh hng cu v tin th thu nhp cng tc ng ti cu v tin. Hm cu v tin: M P d L(r ,Y ) ng LM l s kt hp gia r v Y sao cho cung v cu v s d tin thc t cn bng nhau. CHAPTER 10

Aggregate Demand I slide 33 Phng trnh ng LM : M P L(r ,Y ) ng LM l ng dc ln??? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 34 ng LM (a) Th trng v s (b) ng LM d tin t r

r LM r2 r2 r1 M1 L (r , Y2 ) L (r , Y1 ) M/P r1 Y1 Y2 Y

P CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 35 Chnh sch tin t : Bin cng c l cung tin Nghip v th trng m Thay i t l d tr bt buc Thay i li sut chit khu Vd: tng cung tin or gim cung tin CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 36 Chnh sch tin t lm dch chuyn ng LM

Gi s NHTW gim cung tin thc t th chng ta xem nh hng n ng LM nh th no? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 37 Chnh sch tin t (a) Th trng v s r d tin thc t (b) ng LM r LM

2 LM1 r2 r2 r1 r1 L (r , Y1 ) M2 M1 P P CHAPTER 10 M/P

Aggregate Demand I Y1 Y slide 38 Trng thi cn bng trong ngn hn Trng thi cn bng trong r ngn hn biu th s kt hp r v Y sao cho th trng hng ha v tin t cn bng: IS: Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G LM: LM IS Y M P L(r ,Y )

Li sut cn bng CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Thu nhp cn bng slide 39 BC TRANH TNG QUT Giao im Keynes L thuyt v s a thch thanh khon IS M hnh IS-LM

LM Gii thch s cn bng trong ngn hn ng AD ng AS CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I M hnh AD & AS slide 40 macro

CHAPTER TEN Aggregate Demand I macroeconomics fifth edition N. Gregory Mankiw PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved NI DUNG Chng trc chng ta pht trin m hnh IS-LM Trong chng ny, chng ta s s dng m hnh IS LM : Xem cc chnh sch v nhng c sc tc ng n thu nhp v li sut trong ngn hn khi gi khng i. Xy dng ng tng cu CHAPTER 10

Aggregate Demand I slide 42 Trng thi cn bng trong m hnh IS-LM ng IS i din cho th trng hng ha r LM Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G ng LM i din cho r1 th trng tin t IS M P L(r ,Y ) Y1 Y

Giao im ca ng IS LM quyt nh mc thu nhp quc dn CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 43 Phn tch chnh sch Cc nh lm chnh sch c th tc ng cc bin v m nh : Chnh sch ti kha: G v T r1 Chnh sch tin t: M r Chng ta c th s dng m hnh IS-LM phn tch nhng tc ng ca cc chnh sch

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I LM IS Y1 Y slide 44 Nhng thay i trong chnh sch ti chnh CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 45 S gia tng chi tiu ca chnh ph 1.

ng IS dch sang phi r LM bng (G)/(1-MPC) lm sn lng v thu nhp tng (Y3).ny lm cu 2. iu v tin tng li sut tng (r1 -> r2) 2. r2 r1 1. 3.lm gim u t ca

KV t nhn Y1 Y2 Y3 IS2 IS1 Y 3. V vy Y tng nh hn CHAPTER 10 Aggregate (G)/(1-MPC) Demand I slide 46 S gia tng thu ca chnh ph CHAPTER 10

Aggregate Demand I slide 47 Chnh sch tin t: Tng cung tin 1. Tng cung tin (M > 0) ng LM dch xung (hay sang phi) 2. lm cho li sut gim r LM2 r1 r2 3. kch thch u t v lm tng nhu cu v hng ha v dch v CHAPTER 10

LM1 Aggregate Demand I IS Y1 Y2 Y slide 48 S tng tc gia chnh sch tin t v ti chnh Trong nn kinh t khng th thc hin 1 chnh sch ring l m khng lm nh hng n nn kinh t. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 49

Vic gia tng chi tiu ca Cp cho thy khu vc cng chn p khu vc t nhn(khu vc t phi gim sn lng hng ha v dch v). Nh vy phi lm g ct gim chi tiu ca chnh ph? (chi cho quc phng bo v an ninh khng th ct gim) CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 50 Ty vo mc tiu m NHTW iu chnh bng chnh sch tin t thch hp. NHTW s: 1. Gi M khng i 2. Gi r khng i 3. Gi Y khng i

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 51 Ty vo bi cnh nn kinh t ang u th NHTW s chn chnh sch no cho ph hp. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 52 1. Gi M khng i Nu CP gia tng chi tiu th ng IS dch sang phi Nu NHTW gi M khng i th ng LM khng

dch chuyn. r LM 1 r2 r1 Trong NH: r, Y IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y Trong DH: khu vc t nhn s b trit tiu CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I

slide 53 2. Gi r khng i Nu CP gia tng chi tiu th ng IS dch sang phi gi r khng i, NHTW phi tng M ng LM dch sang phi. r LM 1 2 r2 r1 Y Y3 Y1 LM

IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y r 0 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 54 3. Gi Y khng i Nu CP gia tng chi tiu th ng IS dch sang phi gi Y khng i, NHTW gim M ng LM dch sang tri. LM

2 LM r 1 r3 r2 r1 Y 0 IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y r r3 r1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I

slide 55 Nhng c sc trong m hnh IS-LM Sc ln ng IS Nhng thay i ngoi sinh trong nhu cu v hng ha v dch v CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 56 Th trng chng khon sp * Gi c phiu gim nh hng n ti sn ca ngi tiu dng C nh hng s k vng v tin cy ca cc nh u t I CHAPTER 10

Aggregate Demand I slide 57 C sc ln ng LM : Pht sinh t nhng thay i trong nhu cu v tin. Vd: Mt ln sng gian ln v th ATM CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 58 IS-LM & AD Chng ta s dng m hnh IS-LM phn tch nhng bin ng KT v l gii thu nhp quc dn trong ngn hn khi mc gi khng thay i. xem mi quan h gia IS LM vi

m hnh AD AS nh th no, chng ta s xy dng m hnh IS LM khi mc gi thay i. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 59 * Tuy nhin, mt s thay i trong gi c (P ) s lm ng LM dch chuyn v v vy tc ng n sn lng Y trong nn kinh t. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 60 AD biu hin mi quan h gia lng cu v hng ha (Y) & mc

gi chung (P) ng AD cho chng ta bit lng hng ha v dch v m mi ngi mun mua ti mc gi c bt k no . CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 61 Nhc li: IS: Y = AD LM: M/P = L(r,Y) AD = C + I + G (KT ng) CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 62

Xy dng ng AD LM(P2) r Ti mc cung ng tin t M cho trc: P (M/P ) LM dch sang tri r I LM(P1) r2 r1 IS P Y2 Y1

P2 P1 Y AD Y2 CHAPTER 10 Y Aggregate Demand I Y1 Y slide 63 S dch chuyn ca AD V ng AD tm tt kt qu ca m hnh IS-LM. Nn cc c sc lm dch chuyn ng IS hoc LM u lm cho ng AD dch chuyn.

Nh chnh sch ti chnh v tin t m rng AD dch chuyn ln Chnh sch ti chnh v tin t thu hp AD dch chuyn xung CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 64 Chnh sch tin t & ng AD Xt trong ngn hn: Khi NHTW tng cung tin: M LMr dch sang phi I LM(M1/P1)

r LM(M2/P1) r1 r2 IS P Y1 Y2 P1 Y ti mc gi P1 Y1 CHAPTER 10 Y Aggregate Demand I

Y2 AD2 AD1 Y slide 65 Chnh sch ti chnh & ng AD r Chnh sch ti chnh m r2 rng (G or T ) : LM r1 IS2 T C IS1

IS dch sang phi Y ti mc gi P1 P Y1 Y2 Y P1 Y1 CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y2 AD2 AD1 Y

slide 66 TNG CUNG TRONG DI HN Trong di hn, sn lng ph thuc vo cc yu t nh t bn, lao ng, cng ngh k thut. Y F (K , L) Y chnh l mc sn lng tim nng mc sn lng m ti nn kinh t t c trng thi cn bng trong ngn hn v di hn. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 67 Trong di hn, sn lng khng ph thuc vo gi.

P ng cung trong DH (LRAS) l ng thng ng ti mc sn lng tim nng. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I LRAS Y Y slide 68 S tc ng ca vic gia tng M P Trong di hn

S gia tng M lm ng AD dch sang phi. P2 Trong di hn, iu ny lm gi tng ln P1 AD AD tuy nhin sn lng vn gi nguyn. CHAPTER 10 LRAS

Aggregate Demand I 1 Y 2 Y slide 69 Tng cung trong ngn hn Trn thc t, gi c u c nh (khng i) trong ngn hn. V trong l thuyt v m hnh IS LM, chng ta cng gi nh rng tt c mc gi c nh ti mc c xc nh trc trong ngn hn. v cc DN sn sng p ng mi nhu cu ca ngi mua v h thu va

cng nhn sn xut ra mt lng bng nhu cu ca khch hng. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 70 P V vy ng tng cung trong ngn hn (SRAS) l ng nm ngang ti mc gi c nh. P SRAS Y

CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 71 S tc ng ca vic tng M Trong ngn hn khi mc gi c nh, P vic gia tng M s lm tng tng cu SRAS P AD AD2 1

lm sn lng tng ln. CHAPTER 10 Y1 Aggregate Demand I Y2 Y slide 72 T ngn hn n di hn Theo thi gian, ga c tr nn linh ng hay khng c nh. Trong NH, ti im cn bng Y, nu Trong DH, gi c s

Y Y tng Y Y gim Y Y khng i S iu chnh gi c s lm cho trng thi cn bng ca nn KT di chuyn t NH sang DH. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 73 Tc ng ca tng M trong NH & DH A = trng thi cn

bng ban u B = im cn bng trong NH sau khi NHNN tng M P SRAS2 C P C = im cn bng trong NH & DH CHAPTER 10 LRAS B

A SRAS1 AD AD2 1 Y Aggregate Demand I Y2 Y slide 74 Gi c phiu gam r Trong NH: Y , P = const LRAS LM(P ) 1

1 LM(P2) r1 r2 2 3 IS2 Trong DH: P s gim do Y gim (AD P gim) SRAS dch chuyn P1 P2 xung M/P tng lm cho ng LM dch sang phi CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I

Y* Y IS1 Y LRAS SRAS1 SRAS2 Y* Y AD1 AD2 Y slide 75 r Qu trnh ny tip tc din ra cho n khi nn kinh t t

c trng thi cn bng mi trong di hn Y Y LRAS LM(P ) 1 LM(P2) IS2 Y P Y LRAS P1 SRAS1 P2

SRAS2 Y CHAPTER 10 IS1 Aggregate Demand I AD1 AD2 Y slide 76 Kt lun S khc nhau gia phng php tip cn ca Keynes v trng phi c in i vi qu trnh quy nh thu nhp quc dn - Gi nh ca Keynes l mc gi b kt ( sn lng b chch khi mc t nhin)

- Gi nh ca trng phi c in l mc gi linh hot (mc gi iu chnh m bo thu nhp quc dn lun mc t nhin) CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 77 EXERCISE a. Gi s NHTW p dng chnh sch tht cht tin t. b. Chuyn g xy ra cho nn kinh t trong ngn hn v di hn? CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 78

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