Low-income children's self-regulation in the classroom ...

Low-income children's self-regulation in the classroom ...

Fadeoutin in human capital Fadeout human capital interventions: interventions: Death,Death, miracles and resurrection miracles and resurrection IQ Greg J. Duncan Drew Bailey Winnie Yu

Earnings School of Education University of California, Irvine 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Age -

Impact Death IQ impacts in Perry 1 End of program 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 -0.25 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Age Solid marker denotes p<.05 E ff e c t s i z e i n s d u n i t s Achievement impacts for Head Start 3 year olds 0.40 0.30

End of program 0.20 Letter-Word 0.10 0.00 3 -0.10 4 K 1st Math 3rd

E ff e c t s i z e i n s d u n i t s Cognitive impacts in 67 ECE studies 0.40 0.30 0.23 End of program 0.20 0.10 0.00 0 0.10 0-1

0.09 1-2 0.05 0.06 2-4 4+ P e r c e n t a g e E m p lo y e d F u ll- Employment impacts for the 36-month Canadian Self-Sufficiency Program 30.0 20.0

Program period 10.0 0.0 -10.0 Months From Random Assignment Impact Persistence IQ impacts in Perry and Abecedarian 1 Perry 0.75 Abecedarian

0.5 0.25 0 -0.25 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Age

Solid marker denotes p<.05 IQ and Earnings impacts in Perry 1 0.75 IQ 0.5 0.25 0 -0.25 3 5 7 9 11

13 15 e v i t i n g rs o c u n c o c n

A cle o a r i m 17 Age Solid marker denotes p<.05 19 21 23 Age 27 earnin gs

25 27 29 Earnings impacts for the Job Training Partnership Act Program $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 Adult women Adult men Female youth

Progra m period 7-18 19-30 Months since random assignment Solid marker denotes p<.05 Patterns of fade-out A mess! Impacts fade out in some interventions but dont in seemingly similar interventions Sometimes, for the same intervention, some impacts fade out but others emerge decades later

Outline I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES? Outline I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES? What conditions lead to impact persistence? When interventions

change: the right kinds of skills or capacities, or the right kinds of environments What conditions lead to impact persistence? When interventions change: the right kinds of skills or capacities, or the right kinds of environments Right kinds of skills: Skills or behaviors fundamental for success in adulthood or for childhood attainments that are malleable and would not develop eventually in counterfactual

conditions Right kinds of environments: Malleable features of environments that are fundamental for promoting the right kinds of skills and behaviors Fundamental and malleable skills Fundamental More mallea ble ?... Conscientiousness (grit) Less

mallea ble g (IQ) Peripheral Teaching to the test SAT test prep Flash cards FAFSA rule knowledge Who cares? Fundamental AND malleable skills? Math Literacy Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation

Executive function Emotional selfregulation Fixed vs. malleable intelligence (Dweck) Self-worth (Cohen et al.) Math: number line, fractions, algebra Literacy Background knowledge Right kinds of skills: Skills or behaviors fundamental for success in adulthood or for childhood attainments that are malleable and would not develop

eventually in counterfactual conditions Fundamental AND malleable skills? Math Literacy Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation Executive function Emotional selfregulation Fixed vs. malleable Which would intelligence (Dweck) develop Self-worth (Cohen et

al.) eventually and Math: number line, therefore fractions, algebra generate Literacy impact Background fadeout? knowledge Pace of development in counterfactual conditions Null/slow => no Eventually => fadeout? fadeout?

Math Literacy Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation Executive function Emotional selfregulation Pace of development in counterfactual conditions Null/slow => no fadeout? Fractions, algebra Eventually => fadeout? Counting Large vocabulary

Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation EF working memory Emotional self-reg for some Alphabet knowledge Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation EF impulse control Emotional self-reg for most Background knowledge Examples of impact persistence Algebra

Chicagos double-dose algebra Self-concept Value affirmation Persistent impacts of 9th grade doubledose algebra in Chicago B or higher in 9th-grade algebra A in 9th-grade algebra Impact +13% * ns Passed geometry in 10th grade +12% * Grade 11 math scores +.24 sd * Graduated within 5 years Source: Cortres al. (2011)

Enrolled in any et college +12% * +11% * M e a n G P A in C o re C o u rs e s Cohen values affirmation impacts on low-GPA Black students Program period 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 -0.25

Year 1 Year 2 Cohen caveats No impacts on higherachieving Blacks and whites Some replication attempts show no consistent impacts (Dee, 2014) Conditions where eventual development in counterfactual may lead to fadeout Impulse control by age Did the Canadian SSP accelerate return to labor force that would have happened anyway? T i m e t o s o l v e c o n fl i c t i n Distraction time by age

700 600 500 400 300 Adult level s 200 100 0 3 4 5 Posner and Rothbart (2007)

6 7 Age 8 9 10 P e r c e n t a g e E m p lo y e d F u ll- Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway? 30 20

Program period 10 0 -10 Months From Random Assignment P e r c e n t a g e E m p lo y e d F u ll- Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway? 50 40 30 20 10

Program period Contro l group 0 Months From Random Assignment P e r c e n t a g e E m p lo y e d F u ll- Did Canadian SSP speed up employment that would have occurred anyway? 50 40 30 20

10 Program period Treatm ent group Contro l group 0 Months From Random Assignment What conditions lead to impact persistence? When interventions change:

the right kinds of skills or capacities, or the right kinds of environments Right kinds of environments: Malleable features of environments that are fundamental for promoting the right kinds of skills and behaviors School quality can be a fundamental environmental feature Winning the lottery to enter one of NYCs small high schools of choice (Untermann et al., 2014) Winning the lottery to enter a NYC Small

High School of Choice (n=14,608) Outcomes Graduation Graduated from high school Regents diploma granted Advanced Regents diploma granted College readiness Passed English Regents Exam at 75+ Passed Math Regents Exam at 75+ Post-secondary enrollment Enrolled in post-secondary education SSC Control group

71.6 50.2 8.2 62.2 43.5 7.3 9.4 ** 6.7 ** 0.9 42.1 35.8 6.3 ** 25.1 24.5

49.0 40.7 Effect 0.5 8.4 ** Is neighborhood quality a fundamental environmental feature? Moving to Opportunity suggests not for many outcomes in the US MTO: Huge Differences in Neighborhood Poverty (Duration-Weighted) 0

1 Density 2 3 4 5 Experimental Compliers vs Control Compliers 0 .1 .2 .3

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 Neighborhood Poverty Rate Con Compliers (Exp) Exp Compliers 38 No Impacts on School Achievement

Outcome Interventi ons Impacts Baseline Ages 0 to 5 Reading Assessment ns Math Assessment ns Baseline Ages 6 to 11 Reading Assessment ns

Math Assessment ns Took SAT/ACT? ns 39 What else can sustain impacts? When interventions: (from before) boost the right kinds of skills or environment are supported by post-TX sustaining environment lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad

counterfactual conditions What can sustain impacts? When interventions: (from before) boost the right kinds of skills or environment are supported by post-TX sustaining environment lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions Building Blocks and sustaining environments End of pre-K TX 0.66 Low math in K-1

0.19 High math in K-1 No K-1 TX follow-through 0.17 K-1 TX follow-through 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

0.5 Impact on math in sd units 0.6 0.7 0.8 Building Blocks and sustaining environments End of pre-K TX 0.66 Low math in K-1 0.19 High math in K-1

ns 0.15 No K-1 TX follow-through Similar results for low vs. high math home environments 0.17 K-1 TX follow-through 0 0.1 0.2

0.3 0.4 0.5 Impact on math in sd units 0.6 0.7 0.8 Building Blocks and sustaining environments End of pre-K TX 0.66 Low math in K-1

0.19 High math in K-1 ns 0.15 No K-1 TX follow-through 0.17 K-1 TX follow-through 0.32 0 0.1

0.2 0.3 0.4 p=.07 0.5 Impact on math in sd units 0.6 0.7 0.8 Sustain environments Building Blocks suggest that environmental supports must be

tailored explicitly to the nature of the prior treatment What can sustain impacts? When interventions: (from before) boost the right kinds of skills or environment are supported by post-TX sustaining environment lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions Foot-in-the-door examples? SAT prep may affect college quality, which is known to have a positive impact on earnings Can FAFSA knowledge lead to college and later success?

Was some of Abecedarians long-run success caused by lower rates of special ed and grade retention? Can pro-social behavioral interventions reduce or delay first arrests? Foot-in-the-door Foot-in-the-door links to the emerging literature on developmental cascades (Dodge et al. 2008) Sequence of positive or negative conditions that cumulate to good or bad outcomes Since <100% probabilities multiply, relying on cascades seems like a risky intervention strategy What can sustain impacts? When interventions:

(from before) boost the right kinds of skills or environment are supported by post-TX sustaining environment lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with difficult counterfactual conditions IQ impacts in Perry and Abecedarian 1.25 1 Perry 0.75 Abecedarian

0.5 0.25 0 -0.25 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Age

Perry vs. Abecedarian Perry 1 or 2 years Part-day ECE + weekly home visits Urban setting Abecedarian 5 years Year-round full-day ECE Cumulative curriculum African American Rural setting children with low tested IQs High risk/low SES What can sustain impacts?

When interventions: (from before) boost the right kinds of skills or environment are supported by post-TX sustaining environment lead to foot-in-the-door access to sustaining environments are sufficiently intensive to change foundational skills for children with bad counterfactual conditions Generating peer effects Measles vaccination! Deworming treatments in Kenya generated large benefits for untreated children in treated schools (Miguel and Kremer, 2004) County spending on preschool? M o n t h s o f L e a r n in g G a in e d

More county spending on ECE boosts grades 3-5 achievement 6 5 More At Four Reading Scores More At Four Math Scores 4 3 2 1 0 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

Ladd, Dodge, & Muschkin (2014, JPAM), Muschkin, Dodge, & Ladd (in press, EEPA), Dodge, Ladd, Muschkin, & Bai (under review) Outline I. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE II. OTHER AVENUES FOR IMPACT PERSISTENCE III. HOW TO RECONCILE ECE PROGRAM FADEOUT ON IQ WITH IMPACTS ON ADULT OUTCOMES? Resurrection Death Perrys IQ Swan Dive and Earnings Resurrection 0.87

Earnings IQ 0.44 le c a ir m A urs occ 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728 Age Perry and Abecedarian both affected adult earnings

ECE treatment Mediators Adult earnings Do they have common (statistical) mediators? Are they cognitive or noncognitive? E ff e c t S i z e i n s d u n i Perrys IQ Effects by Age 1.00 IQ 0.75

0.50 0.25 0.00 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -0.25 Age Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005; Effect sizes >.30 are p<.05, one-tailed test

E ff e c t S i z e i n s d u n i Perrys IQ and Achievement Effects by Age 1.00 IQ 0.75 Reading 0.50 Languag e Adult literacy

0.25 0.00 4 Math 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -0.25 Age Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005; Effect sizes >.30 are p<.05, one-tailed test

Perrys Noncognitive Effects Ages 6-9 Index Sample item Impact Academic potential Creativity .31ns Academic motivation Alert and interested; motivated; persists

.37ns Classroom conduct Disobedient; impulsive; blames others .40* Personal behavior Absences; swears .36ns Teacher dependence Seeks constant reassurance

.03ns Emotional state Depressed; withdrawn Source: Pinto, based on Heckman et al. (2014) .29ns ns Perry (statistical) mediators Perry generated a raft of potential mediational effects achievement, but not IQ a number of potentially important noncognitive domains E ff e c t S i z e i n s d u n i Abecedarians IQ and Achievement Effects by Age

1.00 0.75 0.50 IQ 0.25 0.00 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

-0.25 -0.50 Age Source: Campbell et al., 2001; all effect sizes are p<.05. E ff e c t S i z e i n s d u n i Abecedarians IQ and Achievement Effects by Age 1.00 Reading 0.75 0.50 IQ

Math 0.25 0.00 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 -0.25 -0.50

Age Source: Campbell et al., 2001; all effect sizes are p<.05. E ff e c t S i z e i n s d u n i Abecedarians Cognitive and Noncognitive Effects by Age 1.00 Reading 0.75 0.50 IQ Math 0.25

0.00 4 -0.25 -0.50 5 6 7 Global selfworth 8 9 10 11 12 13 1415 161718 1920 21 Cognitive competence

Social competence Age Source: Campbell et al. (2001) and Campbell et al. (2002) Abecedarian (statistical) mediators Abecedarian generated a number of potential mediational effects achievement and IQ but not a limited number of noncognitive measures Two other relevant studies Both the Chicago Parent-Child program (Reynolds et al.) and kindergarten class quality (Chetty) affected adult earnings

CPC affected reading and math achievement more than its noncognitive measures Chetty et al. found more impact on a noncognitive index than on achievement Bottom lines on impact resurrection An even bigger mess! Q: havent developmental psychologists invented a word for a big mess like this? A: YES equifinality, when many roads lead to the same outcomes Summary Impact persistence requires treating fundamental and malleable skills that would not develop eventually in counterfactual conditions

Other avenues are possible Foot-in-the-door cascades from peripheral skills are possible but risky Environmental or intensive individual interventions may work but are expensive Targeting children in the worst Research priorities Bottom lines Long-run follow-ups, perhaps using administrative data Design better post-TX sustaining environment For interventions involving implicit theories, self-concept and motivation, we need more independent replications and longer-run follow-ups Thats it!

Fundamental and malleable skills Fundamental More mallea ble ?... Conscientiousness (grit) Less mallea ble g (IQ) Peripheral Teaching to the test SAT test prep Flash cards FAFSA rule knowledge

Who cares? Pace of development in counterfactual conditions Null/slow => no fadeout? Fractions, algebra Eventually => fadeout? Counting (much) Vocabulary Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation EF working memory Emotional self-reg for

some Alphabet knowledge Implicit theories (Dweck) Self-concept (Cohen) Academic motivation EF impulse control Emotional self-reg for most Background knowledge

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