Introduction of the chain-linking method to the compilation ...

NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE Introduction of the annual overlap method to the compilation of Bulgarian quarterly national accounts TF-SAQNA 15 February 2007 NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE CURRENT STATE Currently produced and published quarterly volume series

are: in prices of the correspondent quarter of the previous year in prices of 2000 applying over-the-year method Since over-the-year technique is only suitable for measuring 4-quarter growth and continuity in growth rates is not satisfactory, the annual overlap method was considered as more reliable. TF-SAQNA 15 February 2007 NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE

NEW METHOD FOR LINKING few considerations were taken into account when making the decision to use this method: quarterly growth rates average to years, so quarterly and annual levels keep in step (temporal additivity); the method eliminate the risk of the so-called drift problem. In order to review the method interim chain-linked estimates are calculated. TF-SAQNA 15 February 2007

NATIONAL NATIONAL STATISTICAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE INSTITUTE THE EFFECTS OF APPLYING THE CHAIN-LINKING The effects of applying the annual overlap method can be found by looking at the difference between this method and the over-the-year method in GDP growth. TF-SAQNA 15 February 2007

NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE NATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS Because of the very initial state of the annual overlap method in Bulgarian QNA, over-the-year technique is still used in seasonal adjustments. TF-SAQNA 15 February 2007