Farm Income, Finance and Credit Outlook for 2002

Farm Income, Finance and Credit Outlook for 2002

Policy Analysis with Integrated Rural/Farm Household Data Mitch Morehart, Jeffrey Hopkins, and James Johnson Third International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Cancun Mexico, November 2-4, 2004 Economic Research Service, USDA Complexity of Farm Household Structure Consumption & Savings Government Functions Government Cash Transfer Income Property Tax Sales Tax In-Kind Transfers Household Money Income Gifts,

Inheritance, etc. Allocation of Income Consumption Public Spending Savings Economic Well-Being Wages, Salaries, and Self Employment Income Nonfarm Employment Home Production Nonfarm Self Employment Household income share Allocation

of Savings Farm Production Home Assets Allocation of Time Education Production Nonfarm Business Assets Labor Financial Assets Farm Assets Investment Income Human Capital

Resources Adapted from: Thomas, R.William (1977). Economic Research Service, USDA Determinants of ARMS Content Public and Private Farming Issues Conceptual Requirements of Financial Accounts Content of Farm Information System Household Labor and Asset Allocation, Demographic, & SocioEconomic Attributes Organizational and Operating Structure of Farms Economic Research Service, USDA Stakeholder Involvement In Production Activities of U.S. Household-Farms Of the 2.1 million U.S. farms: Landlords--209,000 farmers rent land for a share of production; another 633,000 farmers rent land for cash

Lenders--910,000 farmers owe debt at year-end; almost all use debt during the calendar year Hired Labor--632,000 farmers use hired labor Contract Entities--50,000 farmers grow agricultural commodities for other firms under a contract arrangement Partners--93,000 households organized their farm as a partnership Shareholders--65,000 households organized their farm as a family corporation Multiple Operator Households--145,000 farms are organized with multiple households providing production assets Economic Research Service, USDA Modular Design Enables ARMS To Reflect Complex Farm Structure Phase I: Interview to Screen Participants Phase II: Provides In-Depth Perspective About Chemical Use, Production Practices, etc Phase III: Provides In-Depth Perspective About Farm Economics, Household Finances, Farm and Operator Characteristics State-Level Farm-Household Core Survey National Focus Farm-Household Survey Phase III Versions Linked to support income, financial performance, and structural analyses for households and businesses

Production Practices and Costs Report (commodity) Phase II & III versions linked to support adoption & cost distribution analyses Enterprise Linked Farm-Household Survey Phase III & II versions Also support assessment of structure and environmental issues Economic Research Service, USDA ARMS correctly assigns income and expenses to the different stakeholders Stakeholders Share in Value Added Interest Households and Other Institutions Share Net Income Income May be Shared Among Multiple Households

Households Operator Households 93% Net Rent 13.1% 14% Employee Compensation 25.2% 62.1% Net Farm Income 47.7% Nonfamily Farms 7% Contractors With Farm Operators 31.2% Other Households 7% Economic Research Service, USDA Household income and wealth come from a variety of sources

Sources of Farm Operator Household Income Distribution of Nonfarm assets of farm households, 1999 C ash, checking, savings, money market, US savings bonds, and C Ds 21% Wages & salaries 51% Other nonfarm assets 31% Off-farm Business 14% Farm income 9% Social security & other public programs 11% Interest & dividends 8% Net farmland rental 1% IR A, Keogh P lan, 401K, and other retirement plans 26% Other off-farm income 6%

C orporate stocks, mutual funds, and other financial assets 22% Economic Research Service, USDA Policy Example 1: Savings, Income Volatility, and Basic Needs 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1967 1972 1977 1982 f arm household income

1987 1992 1997 2002 nonf arm household income Economic Research Service, USDA Policy Example 2: Farm Household Impacts from Policy Reform Economic Research Service, USDA Policy Example 3: On-farm Technology Adoption Farmers' Use of Input Acquisition Management Practices, 2000 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Commercial farms Intermediate farms

Using management service for inputs Shopping for best price Using buying clubs, etc Rural residences Locking in prices Negotiating discounts Economic Research Service, USDA Implications ARMS data collection is driven by issues confronting households that operate farm establishments Data collection reflects measurement concepts for households, farm establishments, and the U.S. farm sector Issues confronting ARMS measurement system are dynamic Multiple income and wealth measures and changes in demand for data: imply need to collect data at the item and unit level of measurement Imply need to store data at item and unit level to enable use over time and across different issues and groups Household measures are developed within the context of the farm establishment to facilitate use in applied analyses Economic Research Service, USDA

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