Climate Change Mitigation in the Buildings Sector

Climate Change Mitigation in the Buildings Sector

Climate Change Mitigation in the Buildings Sector IPCC Outreach Event on the AR4, Marrakech, April 29-30, 2008 Anthony M. Mehlwana Manager: Natural Resources & Environment CSIR, South Africa INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Acknowledgements: Authors of Chapter 6 Coordinating Lead Authors: Mark Levine (USA), Diana rge-Vorsatz (Hungary) Lead Authors: Kornelis Blok (The Netherlands), Luis Geng (Peru), Danny Harvey (Canada), Siwei Lang (China), Geoffrey Levermore (UK), Mongameli Mehlwana (South Africa), Sevastian Mirasgedis (Greece), Aleksandra Novikova (Russia), Jacques Rilling

(France), Hiroshi Yoshino (Japan) Contributing Authors: Paolo Bertoldi (Italy), Brenda Boardman (UK), Marilyn Brown (USA), Suzanne Joosen (The Netherlands), Phillipe Haves (USA), Jeff Harris (USA), Mithra Moezzi (USA) Review Editors: Eberhard Jochem (Germany), Huaqing Xu (PR China) INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Mitigation in Buildings & Sustainable Development Reduction in local air pollution Improved health & lifestyle Improved productivity Employment opportunities Poverty alleviation Energy security DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Mitigation in Buildings & Sustainable Development Interventions Energy efficiency principles Reduction in local air pollution Thermal envelope Improved health & lifestyle Heating systems Improved productivity Cooling & cooling loads HVAC systems Employment opportunities Building energy management Poverty alleviation

Transforming solar energy Energy security Domestic hot water DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES Energy efficiency principles Lighting systems... etc INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Mitigation in Buildings & Sustainable Development Reduction in local air pollution Mitigation in Buildings Reduction of energy use Abatement of CO2 Improved health & lifestyle Improved productivity Employment opportunities Poverty alleviation Renewable energy

Energy efficiency Energy security DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Overview of Chapter 6 Trends and scenarios of CO2 emissions GHG mitigation options (technologies & practices) Potential & costs of mitigation Co-benefits Barriers in adopting technologies and practices Policies promoting GHG mitigation Interactions of mitigation options with vulnerability, adaptation and sustainable development

Critical gaps in knowledge INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Outline of the presentation Mitigation in the buildings sector: global and regional importance Potential and costs of GHG mitigation in buildings Co-benefits of GHG mitigation in buildings Policies to foster carbon-efficient buildings Solutions/recommendation/areas of further research Conclusions INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Buildings sector: global and regional importance

In 2004, in Buildings responsible for approx. 1/3 of global CO2 emissions This is app. 8.6 GtCO2, 0.1 GtCO2eq N2O, 0.4 GtCO2eq CH4 and 1.5 GtCO2eq halocarbons (direct & indirect emissions) 2030: energy use in buildings will release to the atmosphere 11.8 to 15.6 Gt CO2eq. in 2030; the largest increase in developing countries CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Emission trends in commercial buildings Average annual growth rates during the last 5 years were higher than the 30year trend (3.0% vs. 2.2%) CO2 Emissions from Commercial Buildings (incl. biomass), 19712002 Commercial Buildings Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions 3,000 2,500 M tC O 2 2,000 Middle East and North Africa

Sub Saharan Africa Latin America Other Asia Centrally Planned Asia Former Soviet Union Central and Eastern Europe Western Europe North America Pacific OECD The largest increases in CO2 emissions were: - North America, 125 of the 375 MM t of C increase - China and India, 25/375 -

OECD Pacific, 100/375 1,500 1,000 500 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992

1995 1998 2001 Source: Price et al., 2005 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Projected CO2 emissions: A1 Baseline Scenario-residences Shows rapid economic growth, especially in developing nations Most of CO2 emissions increase occurs in China, India, and Middle East/North Africa Building Sector CO2 Emissions 5000 LBNL/IEA Historical Data A1 Marker Scenario Centrally Planned Asia 4500 Other Asia

Latin America 4000 North America Middle East and N. Africa C O 2 (M to nC O 2) 3500 Western Europe Former Soviet Union 3000 Sub Saharan Africa Pacific OECD Central and E. Europe 2500 2000 1500 Note: 1971-2000 data based

on LBNL modifications of IEA data; 2001-2030 data based on LBNL disaggregation of SRES data; 2000-2010 data adjusted to actual 2000 carbon dioxide emissions 1000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Projected CO2 emissions: 15.6 Gt in 2030 Average annual CO2 emissions growth is 2.5% over the 30year period 2030 Source: Price et al., 2005 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Projected CO2 emissions: B2 Baseline Scenario-residences Has lower economic growth, especially in the developing world (except China) 2 regions account for the largest portion of increased CO2 em. in 2000-2030:

China and North America Building Sector CO2 Emissions 5000 LBNL/IEA Historical Data B2 Marker Scenario 4500 Centrally Planned Asia Other Asia Latin America 4000 North America Middle East and N. Africa 3500 CO2 (M tonCO2) Western Europe Former Soviet Union

3000 Sub Saharan Africa Pacific OECD 2500 Central and E. Europe 2000 1500 Note: 1971-2000 data based on LBNL modifications of IEA data; 2001-2030 data based on LBNL disaggregation of SRES data; 2000-2010 data adjusted to actual 2000 carbon dioxide emissions 1000 500 0

1970 Projected CO2 emissions: 11.8 Gt in 2030 Average annual CO2 emissions growth is 1.5% over the 30year period 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Price et al., 2005 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Methodology for the regional and global estimates Based on app. 80 recent studies from 36 countries and 11 country groups, spanning five continents The world was split into 7 regions (picture below) Western Europe CEE/FSU OECD North America

Africa and Middle East Asia Pacific OECD Latina America INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Potential and costs of GHG mitigation in buildings INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) The importance of improved energy efficiency in GHG mitigation Energy efficiency is one of the most important options to reduce GHG emissions worldwide in the short- to mid-term If costs are taken into account, improved building efficiency becomes the most important instrument in our mitigation portfolio in the short- to mid-term INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Sectoral economic potential for global mitigation for different regions as a function of carbon price, 2030 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) The importance of improved energy efficiency in GHG mitigation Energy efficiency is one of the most important options to reduce GHG emissions worldwide in the short- to mid-term If costs are taken into account, improved building efficiency becomes the most important instrument in our portfolio in the short- to mid-term Capturing only the cost-effective potential in buildings can supply approx. 38% of total reduction needed in 2030 to keep us on a trajectory capping warming at 3C New buildings can achieve the largest savings As much as 80% of the operational costs of standard new buildings can be saved through integrated design principles Often at no or little extra cost Hi-efficiency renovation is more costly, but possible

The majority of technologies and know-how are widely available INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Co-benefits of improved energy-efficiency in buildings Co-benefits are especially abundant and strong in the buildings sector Co-benefits are often not quantified, monetized, or even identified by the decision-makers The overall financial value of co-benefits may be higher than the value of the energy savings benefits Selected co-benefits include: Employment creation new business opportunities improved competitiveness and productivity Improved energy security

reduced burden of constrained energy generation capacities Increased value for real estate Improved social welfare, reduced fuel poverty Improved air quality (both indoor and outdoor) INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Applicability of energy efficiency technologies in different regions 1. Selected illustrative technologies, emphasis on advanced systems, the rating of which is different between countries INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Applicability of energy efficiency technologies in different regions 2. Selected illustrative technologies, emphasis on advanced systems, the rating of which is different between countries INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Policies to foster GHG mitigation in buildings INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Summary: Dominating policy instruments Many developing countries enacted legislation on energy efficiency in buildings Thailand, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, Morocco, Mexico,

Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru A number of others are currently introducing the mechanisms: Kenya, Uganda and the United Arab Emirates The most commonly applied measures in these countries: Voluntary and mandatory labeling, Appliance standards, Public leadership programs, Awareness raising campaigns Only very few evaluations of instruments operating in these instruments in developing countries are available

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Enabling factors: Cost-reflecting E prices, energy or capacity shortages The differences in energy prices explain why certain governments in the Mediterranean region such as Tunisia and Morocco are interested in energy efficiency while others, especially oil producing countries such as Algeria, are not or are less interested However, increase of energy prices would lead Higher fuel poverty Other negative social effects Lifting energy subsidies can help The revenues from lower energy price subsidies can be re-channeled into rebates for energy efficient programs, loans, special assistance for low-income households In SA, large energy shortages in 2006 have driven the government, and utilities to

create an energy agency, public procurement regulations, and DSM programs, for instance the free distribution of CFLs INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Conclusion Improved energy-efficiency could contribute the largest share in our mitigation task in the short- and mid-term Capturing the economic potential in buildings alone can contribute app. 38% of reduction needs in 2030 for a 3C-capped emission trajectory In addition to climate change benefits, improved energy-efficiency can advance several development goals as well as strategic economic targets E.g. energy security, business opportunities and job creation However, due to the numerous barriers public policies are needed to unlock the potentials and to kick-start or catalyze markets Several instruments have already been achieving large emission reductions at

large net societal benefits, often at double or triple negative digit cost figures all over the world However, each new building constructed in an energy-wasting manner will lock us into high climate-footprint future buildings action now is important INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Conclusion 2 The most commonly applied measures in these countries: Voluntary and mandatory labeling, Appliance standards, Public leadership programs, Awareness raising campaigns

No single instrument can capture the entire, or even the large share of the economic and low-cost mitigation potential in the sector alone Due to the especially numerous and diverse barriers in the buildings sector, a portfolio of instruments is necessary to overcome several barriers to take advantage of synergistic effects In addition, developing countries especially require technical and financial assistance, demonstration and information programs and training Other success factors: Institutionalization of energy efficiency within the government structure, Regular monitoring and evaluation or adaptation to local circumstances INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Solutions/Recommendations INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Solutions 1: Training ; Information Lack of knowledge on energy saving construction techniques among architects is a major barrier to energy efficiency, even in most developed

Information campaigns should be adopted to auditoria due to the lack of trust to new issues Trust & awareness can be raised through pilot projects administered & financed by international organizations or bilateral donor agencies or through demonstration projects in the public sector Demonstration programs at all levels (capital, villages and cities) such as the Green Buildings for Africa program in South Africa prove the advantages of energy efficiency to every citizen, independent of the education level Especially in rural areas, characterized by relatively high levels of illiteracy, communication and learning often take place via informal channels such as learning from neighbors; hence the importance of demonstration projects INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Solutions 2: Financial assistance High cost of energy efficient technologies hamper their penetration, especially if the technologies are imported Especially poorer consumers need investment support or affordable loans from bilateral and international donor agencies, governmental funding or through ESCO financing Some countries of Africa have sufficient level of economic development to raise money on their own through:

Public benefit charges or taxes The tax revenues are collected in a fund and are used for supporting energy efficiency projects In RSA, gov also introduced a public benefit charge which is used to finance energy efficiency improvements It is important that such funds are managed by independent agencies or institutions to avoid political influence CDM projects may offer carbon finance for energy efficiency projects, but only few CDM projects in the buildings sector due to high transaction costs, and other barriers INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Solutions 3: Adaptation in local circumstances Numerous programs have already failed because they were just copying programs from other countries Situation analyses are very important before any decision is taken

Ex.: In Brazil, in some regions, electric showers are the second most important electricity consumers in households and therefore require labelling whereas fridges are more important in other regions Solutions 4: Institutionalization Developing countries with successful energy efficiency policies have usually started with the adoption of an Energy Efficiency law or an Energy Efficiency Strategy In order to assist public sector building managers, but also private persons to get the information, the creation of energy agencies is usually very helpful Thailand, South Africa and Mexico also have energy agencies Numerous Arab states are currently introducing such agencies, often with external assistance INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Thank you INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

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