Changes in Electric Generation

Changes in Electric Generation

Sustainable Electric Power Scott Norr, P.E. EE 4501 April 17, 2017 Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More Complex More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY Greater Population Density

Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and Loads Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension New Technology Blended with Old Grid is Already Pretty Smart ELECTRIC DEMAND Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S. Source: Energy Information Administrations

Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (www.eia.gov) World Energy Consumption In 2015: 516 Quad US: 98 Quad: 14 Quad of Electricity

(10% renewable) Source: Energy Information Administrations Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov) US 4.5% of population using 19% of world resources

and housing 22% of worlds prisoners Electric Grid Efficiency Generation is the Weak Link (40% Limit on Thermal Efficiency) Lighting: 100 Lumps IN, 1 Lump OUT???

Courtesy of Tom Ferguson Electric Generation Changing to Meet Demand Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now) Small, Modular, Distributed Plants Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it makes Sense (and Profit) Large Plants

Environmental Issues Fossil Fuels Location/Siting Outlet Transmission

HydroElectric No Longer 3 Gorges Dam Clean Energy Hoover Dam China 20,000 MegaWatts US 2,000 MegaWatts Eoearth.org

Large Plants (Cont.) Well See New Ideas for Big Plants: Coal is dirty so Clean Coal! Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent: Large-scale and Storage Needed Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?

Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!) Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions Potential for Carbon Sequestration WIND 13% growth, 54 GW, in 2016 Wind Generators currently very popular (Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest More and more Cost Effective

(4 - 5 Cents/KWH) Not a Cure-All - never windy when you need it most Difficult to Dispatch Source: Town of Hendricks, MN Wind at Xcel Energy: Solar Electricity

28% growth, 51 GW in 2015 Photvoltaics Electricity Directly from Sunlight Low Conversion efficiency Fairly High Cost Solar Potential: US uses 100 Quad of Energy

each year 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy hits the lower 48 each year BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES New Solar Ideas: 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell

and its ability to catch reflected light Theoretically 50%-70% efficient Very High Cost Solar Concentrators Simple Idea used in Space Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells - Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal Graphene?? Current Photovoltaic

Technologies www.nrel.gov Thin Film Solar: Convert your window into a solar panel How do you wire all your windows

together, safely? www.solarwindow.com Solar Isnt Necessarily Simple: Uneven Shading or internal defects can cause Hot Spots on a

panel. This can reduce panel productivity or WORSE http://www.thermographicconsultancy.com Solar Flare greentechmedia.com

Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new regulations for Solar Panels Houston, We Have a Storage Problem: Renewables are not Dispatchable Courtesy of

Tom Ferguson If we could Store energy when available for use when its not. Energy Storage Technology: Were not ready yet

Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC Promising Battery Tech: Solid-State Li-Ion (No Fires!) news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/goodenough-introduces-new-battery-technology Tesla Power Wall

www.tesla.com/powerwall 92% DC Efficiency, Elon? What about AC? 92% under ideal duty for a NEW battery Drops off quickly for irregular charge/ discharge profile Drops off to 80% with

age Valenaa, et. al. THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK PERFORMANCE Another 3-5% loss to make AC (Inverter losses) Tesla Economics

mnpower.com Tesla adds between $0.12 and $0.20 per kWh to any installation (such as solar or wind) At present in MN, Net Metering Cost cleantechnica.com Recovery makes this unattractive Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could

change the economics drastically! Minnesota Power Pilot Rate: Geothermal 5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010 Extract Hot Water from the Earth Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to

Steam (high temp) 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010) Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr Avg) Excellent Idea for Home Use Ground Source Heat Pumps Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal) Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,

2015 and 2030 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2015 28 DEMAND SIDE Conservation Through: Supplier: Market Pricing Smart Meters

Consumer: Whole House Assessment Smart/Efficient Products Behaviors IBM Predicts the Future of Electric Energy Use www.ibm.com: The future of energy and utilities Market Pricing

Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the changing market: - Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated - Shop around for a better provider - Time of Day Rates - New Equipment to Automate Pricing: - Smart Meters - Smart Appliances Time of Day Rate Example

United Power Co-operative (Colorado) $0.10 differential Penalize On-Peak Subsidize Off-Pk Smart Meters Talks to Electric Company Talks to Consumer About

Hourly Prices and Hourly Consumption Tells Appliances what current Price is Shops Around for a Better Rate? (Future) Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org The Goal:

Each home could be a micro-grid, with a single interconnection to the utility, the smart meter A Whole Home Approach

Appliances and home electronics Insulation and air sealing Lighting and daylighting Space heating and cooling Water heating Windows, doors, and skylights. Efficient Products

Smart Appliances run only when energy is cheapest, talk to each other and to the Electric Utility Passive Solar Thermal Designs and Devices Energy Efficient Home Designs and Ground-Source Heat

Pumps Will we ever achieve practical Hi-Temp Super Conductors? Ground Source Heat Pump Use compressors and heat exchangers to both heat and cool your home and also heat domestic water Some increase in

electric use, but avoid fossil fuels climatetechwiki.org Behaviors Our behavior needs to start reflecting the true value of clean water, electricity on demand, and cheap fuels. And also the environmental impact of their use. Technology can help:

store.nest.com www.usa.philips.com/ Sustainability More than Conservation More than Smart Energy Use Being Responsible with ALL resources and Preserving Them for the Future 7th Generation Concept

Sustainability at UMD umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu CONCLUSIONS New Social Pressures and New Technologies are both changing and complicating the way we convert and use energy In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by

2030), We MUST become more mindful of How and Why We Use Energy. (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf) WEB References National Renewable Energy Labs http://www.nrel.gov/ Electric Power Research Institute http://www.epri.com/

US Dept. of Energy http://www.energy.gov/ Energy Information Association http://www.eia.gov/

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