Causes and Consequences of Migration - Furman University

Causes and Consequences of Migration - Furman University

Causes and Consequences of Migration ECN/SOC 35 What is Migration? Definition: Any permanent change in residence. What about Students? Temporary residents for education or employment purposes? Short moves; e.g., moving to a larger house? Internal v. International

Internal: Migration within the same country May cross other political boundaries (state to state, county to county). Rural to urban; Urban to suburban International: Cross country boundaries Legal v. illegal Refugees: wants to migrate to avoid persecution. Asylees: people who have been forced out and are seeking residence in a new country. Already out of their country. In v. Out People migrating into an area are called immigrants

People migrating out of an area are called emigrants. Measuring Migration Gross emigration rate: (Total out-migrants/midyear population)x1000 Gross immigration rate: (Total in-migrants/midyear population)x1000 Crude net migration rate: ((in-migrants out-migrants)/ midyear pop.)x1000 Or Gross immigration rate Gross emigration rate

Measuring Migration Crude Net Migration Rate captures the effect of migration on a given population Total Migration Rate = (In-migrants + out-migrants)/pop. X 1000 What does this tell us? Migration Turnover Rate (Total Migration Rate/Crude Net Migration Rate)x1000 Atlanta GA MSA Riverside-San Bernardino CA PMSA Phoenix-Mesa AZ MSA Las Vegas NV-AZ MSA

Dallas TX PMSA Washington DC-MD-VA-WV PMSA Houston TX PMSA San Diego CA MSA Austin-San Marcos TX MSA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL MSA Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill NC-SC MSA Fort Lauderdale FL PMSA Denver CO PMSA Orlando FL MSA Fort Worth-Arlington TX PMSA Sacramento CA PMSA Oakland CA PMSA Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI MSA Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill NC MSA

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton FL MSA Monmouth-Ocean NJ PMSA Portland - Vancouver OR-WA PMSA Miami FL PMSA San Antonio TX MSA Boston MA-NH NECMA 73.3 54.3 54.1 48.9 37.8 37.6 36.3 31.1

28.3 24.3 24.2 23.8 23.8 23.4 22.4 21 18.1 17.9 17 16.3 13.2 12.8 11.3

10.1 9.9 Crude Net Migration Rates in Metropolitan areas. Immigration Offer Voluntary v. forced migration African Americans, Native Americans International v. internal migration Voluntary migration

Outcome of a relative comparison of current circumstances and those offered by new location Circumstances defined by laws, institutions, resource base, and climate in country of origin and destination. The student migration experience U.S. Laws: Early Years Alien and Sedition Acts - 1798 French revolution causes expectation of politically-motivated migration into U.S. Authorized President to expel aliens suspected of treasonable acts (Muller, p. 21). Repealed after election of Jefferson in 1800 (believed

laws to be unconstitutional, possible political motivations) Early 19th Century Laws restricting emigration from other countries affected flow of immigrants near turn of century (1800). War in Europe Travel difficult Deterrent to evasion of military service Irish Potato Famine and acceleration of 1840s German migration Reaction to 1840s Immigration

Associated with congestion, crime, and corruption (Muller, p. 22) Reaction often violent Irish immigration particularly scorned and nature of immigrants associated with the misery in Ireland Anti-Catholic sentiment rose, too If the social character (of the U.S.) is liable to be infected the vices and miseries of other countries, from too rapid absorption of their redundant population, or our political institutions exposed to overthrow and corruption by the undue accession of unassimilating elements, how can it be other than

wise to guard against a state of things which must prove ultimately so unfriendly to the best and perhaps last hope of the human family? Henry Duhring, North American Review (Muller, p. 23) The Asians While general anti-immigration sentiment subsided after the Civil War, Chinese and Japanese became new target. Irish had shored up political support. Chinese workers were perceived to be in infinite supply, content with subsistence conditions, and in competition with American workers. Assimilation possibilities were doubted.

Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 shut off Chinese immigration. During their entire settlement in California, they have never adopted themselves to our habits, mode of dress, or our educational system, have never learned the sanctity of an oath, never desired to become citizens, or to perform the duties of citizenship, never discovered the difference between right and wrong, never ceased the worship of their idol gods, or advanced a step beyond the traditions of their native hive. Impregnable to all the influences of our AngloSaxon life, they remain the same stolid Asiatics that have floated on the rivers and slaved in the fields of China for thirty centuries of time.

California Legislature, 1876 (Borjas, p. 27) Late 19th Century Northern European economies strengthened, as did the U.S. economy. Southern and Eastern European immigration hastened (that from North declined) Anti-Catholic, Anti-Semitic attitudes flourished Race was becoming a more important determinant of public policy National-Origins Quota System, 1924 Sought to maintain ethnic/racial composition of U.S. Entry into U.S. limited to 2% of the

population each nationality comprised in 1890. Limits on Eastern and Southern Europe were stringent. Western hemisphere exempted from law The fact that this country comprises a large area and that our industry, including agriculture, must expand to meet a growing population makes imperative a similar increase in common labor. There is a dire and imperative need to permit Mexican labor to enter this country on easy terms. Albert Johnson, Chair, House

Immigration Committee Southwestern congressional support needed to pass legislation. (Muller, p. 45) America must be kept American. Calvin Coolidge (Borjas, p. 29) Nordic victory is seen in drastic restrictions. LA Times McCarran-Walter Act Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 Anti-immigration sentiment intensified in wake of depression and WWII

Reaffirmed National Origins Quota System opposition (e.g., Truman) based on labor shortage Preference system for Eastern Hemisphere countries urgently needed skills relatives of U.S. citizens Growing reasons for exclusion (thirty-one) mental disorders, moral turpitude, disease, prostitution, etc. (Borjas, p. 29) Immigration Act of 1965 Repealed National Origins Quota System unemployment low, growth high, optimism racial equality sentiment (civil rights era) opposition largely in the South

All nations given equal opportunity to immigrate 20,000 limit from any country Western Hemisphere included in limits (Muller, p. 48) Family ties and skills still used European immigration fell, Asian rose Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 Addressed illegal immigration Immigration Reform and Control Act of November 6, 1986 (IRCA) (100 Statutes-at-Large 3359) Authorized legalization (i.e., temporary and then permanent resident status) for aliens who had resided in the United States in an unlawful status since January 1,

1982 Created sanctions prohibiting employers from knowingly hiring, recruiting, or referring for a fee aliens not authorized to work in the United States. INS Homepage: http://www.usdoj.gov/ins/public/stats/561.html Immigration Act of 1990 A major overhaul of immigration law Increased total immigration under an overall flexible cap of 675,000 immigrants beginning in fiscal year 1995. 480,000 family-sponsored 140,000 employment-based 55,000 diversity immigrants (people hurt by 65 Act) Revised all grounds for exclusion and deportation,

significantly rewriting the political and ideological grounds. Repealed the bar against the admission of communists as non-immigrants and limited the exclusion of aliens on foreign policy grounds. http://www.usdoj.gov/ins/public/stats/568.html Percent Foreign-Born in U.S. 16 Percent Foreign Born 14 12 10

8 6 4 2 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960

1980 2000 Immigration, Emigration, Net Migration Im m igrants, Em igrants, Ne t M igration 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Immigrants

5,000 Emigrants 4,000 Net Migration 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 1901- 1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 197110

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Year 198190 Origin of Immigration: 2001 South America 6% Oceania

0% Africa 4% Asia 28% North America 34% Caribbean 8% Europe 14%

Central America 6% Immigration by Gender Male 46% Female 54% Immigration by Age Immigration to the U.S. 2001 180,000 160,000

140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 CNMR States.shp -12.956 - -8.239 -8.239 - -0.973 -0.973 - 5.09

5.09 - 14.997 14.997 - 28.15 Why do People Migrate (or not)? Push Pull Theory Push factors Local economic opportunity, services and infrastructure, environment Pull factors Destination economic opportunity, services and infrastructure, social support, environment Broadly constructed framework that is useful for understanding migration but perhaps not in

understanding the non-migrants. Other Theories Neoclassical Economics People follow economic opportunities New Household Economics Joint decisions are made for all family members Job opportunities for both spouses (if applicable) Schooling quality for children, etc. Tied movers and tied stayers Other Theories of Migration Dual Labor Market Expensive and difficult to convince natives to

work in secondary sector, so immigrants fill a role that does not compete with natives. World Systems Theory Core v. periphery nations Peripheral nations send migrants to core nations with whom they have the greatest contact. Other Theories of Migration Network Theory Immigrants contact friends and family and communicate their experiences, which may draw additional migrants from the same place. Institutional Theory

Institutions, legal and illegal, for profit and nonprofit, evolve to perpetuate migration. Cumulative Causation Focus on migration impact on sending and receiving environmentsoccupational structural change, remittances, likelihood of moving again, etc. Todaros Migration Model Migration depends on the expected wage differential between rural and urban sectors. Expected wage in city is Wu* = p x Wu, where p is the probability of finding a job and Wu is the actual urban wage rate.

The probability of finding a job is given by the employment rate in the urban sector In other words, p = (Eu/(Eu+Uu)). p = probability of finding a job Eu = Urban employment rate Uu = Urban unemployment rate Immigrants Immigration by Gender and Age: 2001 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Male Female Age Todaros Migration Model Mt = a x (p x Wu - Wr) Rural wage

known with certainty Migrants in time t Responsiveness parameter (varies by culture, costs of moving Prob. of finding a job in urban area

Expected urban wage Model Predictions As the expected wage differential rises, migration rates will increase As the employment rate rises in the city, the probability of finding a job increases, thereby increasing the differential and increasing migration Job creation programs can have unintended consequences

As responsiveness changes, migration will change Human Capital Model Todaro Generalized Stream of earnings (or expected earnings) in new location is compared to that of old location After subtracting costs of migrating, the streams are compared If net (after costs) present value (after time value of money is considered) of earnings is greater in new location, people move. Age implications

Human Capital Model PV of earnings CA earnings NY earnings gains from moving costs of moving (including op. cost) time Earnings of Natives and Immigrants (Cross-Sectional Evidence: CAUTION!)

Immigrants initially have lower earnings lack culture- and system-specific skills Immigrants experience greater increases in earnings over time they accumulate culture- and system-specific skills which enable them to reap greater gains Immigrants surpass natives the pool of immigrants is atypical of the population from which they came: they are special (productivity, initiative) Earnings of Immigrants Cross Sectional Evidence

immigrants 7200 natives annual earnings (1972 dollars) 35 age Cohort Effects: How Immigrants are Changing 1960: immigrants had on average one-half year more schooling than natives

1980: immigrants had on average one year less schooling than natives 1990: immigrants had on average one and one third years fewer schooling than natives Earnings of Immigrants Cohort Evidence 1950-59 immigrants natives wage rates

1975-79 immigrants age Public Assistance, Wages, and Immigration 1970: 5.9% of immigrants received public assistance. 6% of native households received public assistance. 1990: 9.1% of immigrants received public assistance, compared to 7.4% of native households Immigrants pay more in taxes than entitlements; we do not know whether they compensate for all public services consumed (Borjas, p. 288)

The influence of immigration on natives wages appears to be negligible. References Borjas, George. Friends or Strangers, New York: Basic Books, 1990. Borjas, George, Labor Economics, New York: McGrawHill, 1996. Borjas, George, The Economics of Immigration, Journal of Economic Literature, December, 1994. Muller, Thomas, Immigrants and the American City, New York: NY University Press, 1993. Simon, Julian, The Economic Consequences of Immigration, New York: Blackwell Press, 1989.

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