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Labour Supply by Occupation: Available Data and Their Use in Quebec Richard Legris, Emploi-Qubec Alain Rousseau, Quebec department of education, recreation and sport (MELS in French) Workshop on Labour Supply by Occupation FLMM-LMI Work Group October 17 and 18, 2007, Vancouver Presentation Outline A few remarks about Emploi-Qubec and how vocational and technical training is organized in Quebec Occupational outlook - estimated demand

Training-employment balance - managing supply to demand Meshing data on labour supply and demand: presentation of the health sector model 2 Structure of Emploi-Qubec Government agency part of the Quebec department of education, recreation and sports (Ministre de lducation, des Loisirs et du Sport du Qubec MELS) - employment services to the public / social solidarity services Major role of labour market partnerships: a labour market partners board (Commission des partenaires du march du travail

CPMT), regional boards (17) and sectoral committees (30) Decentralized management: 17 regional boards and approximately 145 local employment centres (CLEs) and delivery points In 2005-2006: A budget of approximately $1 billion for the workforce and employers (not including last-resort funding of $2.7 billion) 259,000 individuals received employability assistance 128,000 Quebecers obtained employment through EmploiQubec 3 Vocational and Technical Training in Qubec 70 school boards offer vocational training:

142 programs leading to a vocational diploma (DEP) 26 programs leading to an Attestation of Vocational Specialization (AVS or ASP in French) 30 short basic programs leading to a vocational studies certificate (AEP) 48 general and vocational colleges (CGEPs) offer technical training: 114 programs leading to a college diploma (DEC) Over 1,000 basic programs leading to an attestation of collegial studies (AEC in French) 4 Programs of study linked directly to

the needs of the labour market and of individuals through training design based on: a skills-oriented approach (APC in French) ensuring that programs of study correspond more closely with labour market requirements (qualitative component) and actual labour requirements, thereby ensuring a balance between the training supply and labour market needs in terms of structure and anticipated growth (quantitative component). 5 Occupational Outlook in Quebec

In Quebec, 16 economic regions and the CMAs of Montreal and Quebec City Five-year projections 500 occupations for approx. Prospective analysis supported by a labour market watch and the participation of our partners Reviewed annually

6 The Quebec Labour Market Drop in the unemployment rate (supply) Aging workforce Working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will start to decline in 2012 Effective balancing is increasingly important 7 Occupational Outlook: Characteristics

520 occupations: uniformity of method Similar occupations that follow different courses of training: supply that is not evident in one occupational area will surface in another Capacity to meet labour market needs is limited by available supply 8 Labour Demand: The Starting Point... The Conference Boards macro scenario Estimated labour needs by sector (market expansion) Estimated needs by occupation (market expansion)

Replacement needs (retirement and mobility between occupations) Total demand by occupation 9 Labour Supply: Hiring Capacity Difficulty to produce a forecast for each occupation under study Option selected: estimate of the supply at the beginning of the

time period (estimated unemployment rate by occupation) Verification by means of EI recipient data MELS: important input concerning the latest supply of graduates 10 Labour Market Watch - Objectives To chart the progress of occupations and corresponding training programs where placement problems are encountered at either the regional level or in Quebec as a

whole To find solutions to these problems where training is just one of many strategies To involve partners other than the MELS and Emploi-Qubec in solving the problems identified To be able to produce regular updates on the trainingemployment balance for the principal (critical) occupations identified in a given region 11 Active Labour Market Watch SUPPLY WATCH DEMAND WATCH

Recipients of Employment Assistance and Insurance Analysis of labour market trends Labour force and unemployment rate Employment outlook Recent and future graduates Analysis of economic and structural conditions

Demographic evolution Occupations in demand Immigration Hiring surveys (La Relance) Online placement - job vacancies Indicators Indicators(regions (regionsand andQuebec Quebecas asaawhole) whole)

12 Active Labour Market Watch Diagnosis of Labour Needs Indicators (regions and Quebec as a whole) Action (regions and Quebec as a whole) Immigration Emploi-Qubec Action plan LMI Promotion and validation

Education Course content map Promotion and validation Training-employment balance Alignment plan 13 The Training-Employment Balance Use of a diagnostic tool that allows us to determine the number of individuals that need to be trained to ensure that a sufficient quantity of skilled workers is available in every region of Quebec

14 The Model for TrainingEmployment Balance - based on the linkage between training programs and occupations (NOC) - based on the estimated labour and labour replacement needs specified in Emploi-Qubecs occupational outlooks for 2007-2011 - takes into account student behaviour with respect to qualifications and the pursuit of higher learning 15

Planning for Labour in the Health Sector A study conducted by the Quebec department of health and social services (MSSS) and its partners to: determine the actual situation in each occupation forecast the size of the labour force over 15 years define recruitment requirements reach agreement with partners on possible components of an action plan 16 An example of

integration: supply demand D Health Sector E M A N D Initial workforce

Initial shortage or surplus Need for recruitment Annual growth rate - needs Education Network Labour requirements S

U P P L Y Departures: retirement, death, resignation Actual entrants Graduation rate

Graduates participation rate Demographic forecasts Need for entrants Expected number of graduates Thank you very much for

your attention!! Questions, comments APPENDIX QUEBECS EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM: Overall structure Continuous Training Labour Market Specialized Trades 16 yrs old + first language (1L), 2L and level-3 math for certain programs or

16 yrs old + 1L, 2L and level-4 math for certain programs D.E.S. D.E.S. Primary 6 years (6-12) Professions DEP

Vocational Training DEP : 600 to 1,800 hrs ASP : 330 to 900 hrs DEP Doctorate Master s DEC Undergraduate (3 - 4 yrs)

1re 2 e 3e 4 e 5 e Prechool 1 year long (age 5) Technology Secondary - 5 years (age 12-17) Technical Training (3 years)

Pre-university Training (2 years) DEC DEC University College Active Watch Data Available Labour: Results by occupation for Emploi-Qubecs occupational outlook model for the regions and Quebec as a whole

occupations in demand for the regions and Quebec as a whole Education: Number of enrolments per vocational and technical program for the regions and Quebec as a whole Diplomas awarded by program for the regions and Quebec as a whole Course content map La Relance (hiring surveys) NOC correspondence chart - training programs Projected graduation numbers

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