Aero-Engines 1903-2003

Aero-Engines 1903-2003

ROYAL AERONAUTICAL SOCIETY SOLENT BRANCH 13th November 2013 Operational Fuel Savings and Noise Reduction Do We Still Need a Pilot Hugh DIBLEY FRAeS, FRIN, CMILT formerly BOAC/BA

Airbus Toulouse (Busy slides for reading without audio!) 1st Airbus A380 Transport of Components & Final Assembly RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 2 /124 ROYAL AERONAUTICAL SOCIETY SOLENT BRANCH

13th November 2013 Operational Fuel Savings and Noise Reduction Do We Still Need a Pilot Hugh DIBLEY FRAeS, FRIN, CMILT formerly BOAC/BA Airbus Toulouse (Busy slides for reading without audio!)

Hugh Dibleys Main Aviation Activities RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 6 /124 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 7 /124 Graduates/ Associates of Who have given lecture to the RAeS Toulouse Branch

David Baxter Kenji Takeda Peter Chandler Airbus Chief Test Pilot Commanded 1st Flight of Airbus A350 14 June 2013 Dave MacKay Chief Test Pilot Virgin Galactic

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 8 /124 Background to Presentation 2003 Branches Conference RAeS President Prof Ian POLL, 100 Years of Manned Flight Remove pilot to improve safety! . 2009 CEAS Manchester H Dibley lecture, chaired by Ian Poll: Aircraft Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction - Past & Future Ian Polls reaction: I never realised pilots did so much I must change my view.

RAeS 2010 Aerospace Statement: Pilots will go as we have led with driverless trains Extra section added related to safety Do we need a pilot? RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 9 /124 Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction Past & Future 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Simplified Aircraft Flight Profile for a Single Aircraft Efficiency Loss as ATC must Separate Aircraft then Merge to Land Pre-Flight Planning Cost of Carrying Extra Fuel on the Sector

Departure Noise Abatement Procedures Cruise - Fuel Savings & Crew Situational Awareness Descent Large opportunity for Fuel Savings and safety in approach Approach Large opportunity for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction Steep Approaches to reduce noise? Crews Ability to Save Fuel/Time by Choosing Approach & Runway Past Examples of Operational Fuel Savings Possible Future Operational Fuel Savings Future ATM Fuel Savings Being Achieved NOW USA Future ATM Fuel Savings Being Achieved NOW - Europe RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 10 /124

1. Simplified Aircraft Flight Profile for a Single Aircraft Single aircraft Efficiency is reduced by the need for ATC to separate aircraft to avoid conflicts then merge again for landing RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 11 /124

2. Efficiency Loss as ATC must Separate Aircraft then Merge to Land As aircraft approach their destination, ATC must merge aircraft into a stream to the runway to achieve the most efficient landing rate. At present this is usually achieved by ATC giving aircraft headings and speeds to fly at low levels which stretch the approach path while aircraft are placed in sequence at the required spacing for the type causing extra fuel consumption and noise over the ground. New Air Traffic Management Systems will merge aircraft into their landing sequence earlier in the flight, and allow more efficient descents with idle thrust leading to quieter Constant Descent Approaches with no periods of level flight. The complexity of the process to merge traffic efficiently can be seen from the aircraft tracks into Schiphol airport at Amsterdam and simulations of the Paris arrival routes. Simulation of Paris Arrivals

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 12 /124 Maximize Take-off Weight Prime Requirement Sound Knowledge of Take-off Performance Principles To Take-off at the Maximum Allowable Weight for the Conditions RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 13 /124 3 Pre-Flight Planning Fuel Uplift Must Kept to Minimum

Extra weight increases fuel consumption by app 3% per hour Aircraft weight minimised for fuel efficiency composites etc Fuel adds weight so must exactly planned & kept to minimum Extra fuel can be required for expected delays due to: ATC congestion, weather, disasters, industrial action, etc If Fuel Price Much Cheaper at Departure than Destination Carrying in the fuel can be the most efficient means of delivering the fuel. Most often simply commercial differences. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 14 /124 3 Pre-Flight Planning Cost of carrying extra fuel

Carrying extra fuel over the minimum flight plan fuel always involves as penalty due to the extra weight burnt at 3% per hour. The actual cost of extra fuel depends on the relative cost of fuel between the departure and destination airfields. If the fuel is cheap enough at the departure airfield it can be worthwhile carrying/tankering extra fuel into the destination. However the effect of the extra weight on the aircraft must be considered extra landing distance, possible extra brake wear and use of reverse thrust, reduced maximum cruise altitude, etc. This decision is best made by the crew on the day who need to know the cost of extra fuel for the most economic judgement. For example:

HKG-NGO Save $127/tonne definitely worth tankering. LHR-BRU Save $1/tonne not worth tanking for fuel price alone. HKG-DEL Cost 1/tonne extra fuel could be cheap insurance if delays en route were likely. NGO-HKG Cost 206 cost of extra fuel prohibitive. Many companies do not publish Fuel Price Differentials but just tell crews when to tanker fuel, which may not be efficient. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 15 /124 Airbus A380 Payload-Range Diagram Essential Information for Selecting Correct Aircraft RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 16 /124

3 Pre-Flight Planning Cost of Extra Fuel reducing Payload Flight Operations job is to carry Maximum Payload at Minimum Cost Primarily - Uplift minimum fuel and burn the minimum amount in flight On long sectors extra fuel displaces payload thus losing revenue Loss is extreme on very long sectors when the tanks

are already full and the only way to fly further is to reduce the passenger load/ weight. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 17 /124 Flight Operations job is to Carry Maximum Payload at Minimum Cost.

Having Uplifted the Minimum amount of Fuel now Operate the aircraft efficiently and Cost effectively to Burn the Minimum Fuel in flight consistent with minimum environmental pollution. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 18 /124 4. Noise Abatement Departure Procedures 1 & 2 Early turbojet powered aircraft were extremely noisy on takeoff so had to climb steeply to 3,000ft before accelerating to retract flaps and climb at the most efficient speed,

shown as NADP 1 in red. Later fan jet engines with colder/slower exhaust streams made less noise so could accelerate sooner and climb more efficiently shown as NADP 2 in green. Noise close to the airport could be increased but was less than from turbojet aircraft, and noise further out is reduced as the aircraft is higher than with NADP 1. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 19 /124 4. Noise Abatement Departure Procedures 1 & 2 The noise foot print from current large fan jet aircraft is some 75% less than from the early fan jet aircraft, therefore NADP 2 can be used at most airports without causing significant noise disturbance close to the runway.

Yet some states specify that the less efficient NADP 1 be followed at airports where urban noise reduction is not a factor. This is causing significant amounts of unnecessary amounts of extra fuel to be burnt and emissions released into the atmosphere at low level. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 20 /124 4. A380 Aircraft & Engines Optimised for Low Departure Noise Minimising aircraft departure noise is considered to be a critical factor in aircraft design. Rolls-Royce increased the fan size of the Trent 900 for the Airbus A380 to comply with the London Heathrow airport departure noise limits at the highest takeoff weight. Airbus optimised the low speed performance of the aircraft and engine nacelle design and

minimised the airframe noise to make the A380 currently the quietest large jet aircraft. After takeoff engine thrust is selected automatically for minimum noise on the designed climb profile which produces the best compromise between climb rate and acceleration as the aircraft gains altitude to create the minimum overall noise disturbance. A380 airframe & engine designed to minimize noise A380 Optimised Engine Thrust & Climb Profile RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 21 /124 5. Cruise - Fuel Savings by Making Maximum Use of Winds

The flight profile must make maximum benefit of the considerable energy in the atmosphere. The example shows times when the wind component over Western Europe changed by 220 kts. Flight planning systems are fed with winds direct from the forecast weather models which can be

updated by information from aircraft in flight and fed back by AMDAR. Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay was started by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in the mid 1980s RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 22 /124 Cruise Crews Need to be Aware of Aircraft Performance

Aircraft have been stalled and control lost by climbing too high. Some aircraft can climb to Coffin Corner [not A320] DONT GO THERE FMGC Max Buffet Limit 1.3 G [A320 300 fpm Climb limited] Speed range at 1.5 G in Steep turn Speed range at 1 G in level flight

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 23 /124 5. Cruise Crews Need to be Aware of Aircraft Performance Crews should be have a good knowledge of the performance of their aircraft such as: Optimum speeds for minimum cost, minimum fuel, etc and the penalties for flying away from the normal/recommended speeds. Cruise Speed & Fuel Consumption Relationship Flying too fast can be expensive/uneconomic can be justified by curfews/connections The optimum speed curve can be flat so slowing down absorbs delays economically... Aircraft can be unstable at low/efficient speeds can now fly automatically

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 24 /124 Linear Versus Circular Holding for Delays Why Regular Circular Holding At LHR (10-20 mins holding considered normal to UK ATC?) Primarily due to Shortage of Runway Capacity Approach controllers need a reserve of aircraft to be able to sequence aircraft in efficiently to maximise LHRs single runway landing rate . If Cruising at Normal Speed En Route then Circling at Destination Fuel burnt while circling/holding is wasted 50% on a short flight?? Reducing Speed En Route to Lose the Time Spent Circling

Can eliminate fuel wastage. Lockheed demoed 4D navigation in 1977! Passenger delays in immigration due bunching in abnormal weather Can be due to shortage of runway capacity.... We need more capacity else business will go to AMS, CDG, FRA , MUC RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 25 /124 Linear Versus Circular Holding for Delays Why Regular Circular Holding At LHR (10-20 mins holding considered normal to UK ATC?) Primarily due to Shortage of Runway Capacity Approach controllers need a reserve of aircraft to be able to sequence aircraft in efficiently to maximise LHRs single runway landing rate .

If Cruising at Normal Speed En Route then Circling at Destination Fuel burnt while circling/holding is wasted 50% on a short flight?? Reducing Speed En Route to Lose the Time Spent Circling Can eliminate fuel wastage. Lockheed demoed 4D navigation in 1977! Passenger delays in immigration due bunching in abnormal weather Can be due to shortage of runway capacity.... We need more capacity else business will go to AMS, CDG, FRA , MUC RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 26 /124 More runways required somewhere! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 27 /124

More runways required somewhere! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 28 /124 6. Descent Large opportunity for Fuel Savings or Wastage THERE IS NO TRADE BETWEEN FUEL & TIME DUE TO A POOR DESCENT Summary of Penalties Cause by Poorly Executed Descents: (Written in 1973 some of us were worried about the environment then.) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 29 /124 Aircraft Most Efficient at their Optimum Altitude

for Weight, Wind Component, Cruise Speed, etc Correct descent essential for fuel efficiency. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 30 /124 6. Descent Large opportunity for Fuel Savings or Wastage Reduction of True Air Speed at Low Altitude at the same Indicated Air Speed causes increase in fuel consumption and flight time Descending early wastes fuel and time, can expose aircraft to icing conditions and more

aircraft traffic, makes more noise, etc RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 31 /124 Before Distance Measuring Equipment available with No Ground Radar, Descents Made in Steps, Continuing Descent Passing Radio Beacons Radio Beacon Mountain

The same principle had to apply for Non Precision Approaches (perhaps more later) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 32 /124 6. Descent Large opportunity for Fuel Savings or Wastage NASA B737 Descent Trials showed that a typically flown profile in line operation which descended early burnt 40% more fuel than the NASA 737 while taking the same time. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 33 /124

6. Descent Large opportunity for Fuel Savings or Wastage Circular slide rule primarily designed to help crews follow an efficient flight idle descent profile to comply with an ATC clearance such as to cross 23 DME XYZ at 8,000ft at 250kts. Direct DME-Altitude checks are available throughout to verify on the profile. A fixed gradient of 400ft per mile above 10,000ft is suitable for IAS of 300-340kts according to aircraft weight, and 300ft per below 10,000ft for 250kts IAS after an 8 mile nm deceleration.

Checking the profile mentally, normally by 300ft per mile, requires regular computation of an equation, such as at 50 DME: (50-8-23) x 300 = 5,700 + 8,000 = 13,700ft In a survey BOAC B747 pilots estimated their efficiency was improved by at least 10 miles when using the computer, covering the cost of the 2 provided on each aircraft in 1 flight. Besides minimising fuel burn and noise, following this profile improves safety by keeping the aircraft well clear of the ground into nearly all airfields.

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 34 /124 14. Accidents That Need Not Have Happened RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 35 /124 Expanded Scale Can Show Glidepath on Approach to 30ft. (more later) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 36 /124 7. Approach Critical for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction

Approach is the phase of flight after descent when the aircraft is decelerated and configured by extending flaps for the final approach. Ideally it is a short period of continuous descent. ATC may need to give headings and speeds while aircraft are merged into a landing stream, when flaps and landing gear must be extended as late as possible to minimise the extra fuel burnt. Baseline Cruising at 37,000ft The baseline of the table giving comparative fuel

consumption is when cruising at FL370/37,000ft. Minimum fuel is consumed while descending which shows that long slow descents with idle thrust are the most fuel efficient. Maximum noise and fuel consumption, 400% more than at cruise altitude, is when flying level with flaps and gear extended (500% on a B747), but reduced when descending on the final glidepath even with the extra drag of full landing flap. Maximum Fuel Consumption

Minimum Fuel Consumption This demonstrates that level flight should be resisted if possible and that level flight with flaps and gear extended should avoided at all costs. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 37 /124 7. Approach Critical for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction This shows that city life need not be disturbed significantly if aircraft are flown level with minimum flap setting above 3,000ft, preferably at least 5,000ft, before descending on the glideslope to the runway with gear up until about 1,500ft to be established for landing by 1,000ft.

(On Airbus aircraft the gear can be extended at 800ft, like the Space Shuttle, but this is not the approved procedure.) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 38 /124 7. Approach Critical for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction One operator into London Heathrow required the flaps and gear extension to be confirmed in the Initial Approach Checklist which was completed when leaving the entry points to the London area, so the aircraft could fly with the gear extended for up to 60 miles. With the extra drag of the gear and flaps the aircraft would descend steeply and then fly at low altitude across central London making conversation impossible when over flying. Aircraft noise disturbance over central London was a significant factor in the 1971 decision that the third London airport should be built 100km East of London on the Essex/North Sea

coast, but this project was terminated after the 1973-4 fuel crisis. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 39 /124 7. Approach Critical for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction To try and reduce the extreme levels of noise over central London this article was published in the GAPAN Journal of March 1974 (Appendix A in the CEAS paper and at www.Dibley.eu.com.) Suggesting that crews should ideally fly a continuous descent from the entry point to intercept the runway glideslope and extend the landing at about 1,500ft to

be stabilised in the landing configuration by 1,000ft. The idea was accepted by UK NATS and after input from Lufthansa who were proposing their similar Managed Drag Procedure, Constant Descent Approaches were started into LHR in 1975. DMEs were installed to give crews continuous distance to the runway paid for by the Department of Trade who was responsible for Noise Abatement. However CDAs into LHR were not implemented as well as hoped as the procedure has yet to be included in the manufacturers operating manuals. While local operators are proficient less regular visitors will tend

to descent early to intercept the glideslope from below. Similar CDAs can be flown into airports like JFK immediately reducing noise on the approach. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 40 /124 7. Approach Critical for Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction The type of CDA introduced into London and the Netherlands can give worthwhile noise reductions from 10 to 25 miles from the runway with no additional technology, and are being implemented in other airports such as Sacramento. However at busy airports merging aircraft into an

efficient sequence for the approach can be more difficult with aircraft trying to fly CDAs. Future ATM systems due in service by about 2010 will allow efficient CDAs from cruise altitude, but procedures using parts of this system are already operating in some areas as described later. UPS have been integrating their own aircraft flying CDAs into Louisville, which is possible because UPS is the only operator there at night. Similarly because of their relatively low level of traffic the Swedish aviation authority LFV have been developing Green 4D trajectories flying CDAs into Stockholm Arlanda, both locally from and across the Atlantic. However crews can still make savings using their own initiative.

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 41 /124 8. Crews Can Save Fuel/Time by Choosing Approach/Runway Approach tracks into busy airports can be structured with a long lead in for bad weather, and some are flown automatically to follow agreed noise routes. When traffic and weather permits, crews should be allowed to fly shorter visual approaches RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 42 /124 9. Steep Approaches to reduce noise? Steep approaches were mainly operated by

quiet STOL turboprop aircraft which were cleared to operate into short runway airports close to city downtown areas. London City Airport Airbus have obtained approval for their smallest aircraft the A318 to fly the 5.5 approach into London City Airport. To fly a steep approach on jet aircraft requires extra drag and a switch on the A318 changes the flight control laws to

extend some speedbrakes during the final descent, and gives the pilot aural warnings when to start the flare to land which is made about 40ft sooner than normal. Dame Ann Dowling & Tom Hynes The autopilot must be disconnected before found for the Silent Aircraft Initiative reaching the minimum altitude when the Approach runway must beOptimum in sight which

is higher Glide Slope Angle = 3.9 than for the normal 3 degree approach. Steep approaches are not expected to be possible by larger Airbus aircraft, but work will concentrate on reduction of aerodynamic noise during approach. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 43 /124 10. Past Examples of Operational Fuel Savings Example of 8% Immediate Fuel Saving by Crews Flight data recording showed

that an aircraft fleet was not operating efficiently. A fuel economy newsletter listed the flight segments and what how much extra fuel was being burnt / could be saved by a better operation. The total extra burn was possibly 26% but this was unlikely to be saved as not all items would occur on one leg. After crews were made aware

of the penalties and some changes in procedures an 8% saving was achieved immediately. Departure/arrival procedures in italics are not optimised in current operations. 1979 prices Potential Fuel Saving 26%

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 44 /124 10. Past Examples of Operational Fuel Savings Example of 8% Immediate Fuel Saving by Crews Flight data recording showed that an aircraft fleet was not operating efficiently. A fuel economy newsletter listed the flight segments and what how much extra fuel was Every

little being burnt / could beimprovement saved by a better operation. The total extra burn was possibly 26% but this was unlikely to be saved as not all items would occur on one leg. After crews were made aware of the penalties and some

changes in procedures an 8% saving was achieved immediately. Departure/arrival procedures in italics are not optimised in current operations. 1979 prices helps Potential Fuel Saving 26%

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 45 /124 10. Past Examples of Operational Fuel Savings Example of 8% Immediate Fuel Saving by Crews Flight data recording showed that an aircraft fleet was not operating efficiently. A fuel economy newsletter listed the flight segments and what how much extra fuel was

Every little being burnt / could beimprovement saved by a better operation. The total extra burn was possibly 26% but this was unlikely to be saved as not all items would occur on one leg. After crews were made aware

of the penalties and some changes in procedures an 8% saving was achieved immediately. Departure/arrival procedures in italics are not optimised in current operations. 1979 prices helps Rolls-Royce spends

800M per year on Research & Development to achieve 1% improvment in fuel efficiency Potential Fuel Saving 26% RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 46 /124 10. Past Examples of Operational Fuel Savings A contract was secured because the crews more efficient operation saved 13% fuel compared to the

previous operator which covered the crews cost. A cargo operator became profitable by, amongst other savings, increasing payloads by reduced fuel reserves and improved fuel consumption. The Fuel Monitoring Graphs show how individual crew performance can vary and affect the profitability of an airline. The top graph shows the cost of carrying extra fuel based on the Sector Fuel Price Differential. The centre graph shows the cost of extra fuel burnt in flight, perhaps by non optimum operation of the aircraft descending early, configuring for approach too soon, etc.

The bottom graph shows the total of the two. The difference between the extremes is over U$400 per sector which for a year could total U$100Ks. Such information must obviously be used sensitively and only be used for encouragement. Crew Fuel Monitoring Graphs Top Cost of Extra Fuel Uplifted Centre Cost of Extra Fuel Burnt Bottom CrewsTotal Extra Cost RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 47 /124

Fuel Efficiency by Improved Procedures? Flying in Formation..... RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 48 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Procedures? Flying in Formation..... Perhaps 10% improvement by Surfing US C17s? RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 49 /124

Fuel Efficiency by Improved Aircraft Types RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 50 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Aircraft Types RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 51 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Optimising Aircraft Size A380 Range Capability Can fly 14,500km/9,000miles 7,800 nautical miles

Southampton to Perth Australia RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 52 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Optimising Aircraft Size Southampton-Perth RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 53 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Optimising Aircraft Size Flight Southampton Perth Australia

14,500km/9,000 statute miles Flying Close to Colombo about half way Flight Time approx 18 hours Fuel carried for ColomboPerth is burnt at 3% per hour Soton-Colombo Therefore about an extra 35% fuel can be required for a non-stop flight on a high take-off weight aircraft capable of flying the 9,000 miles non stop. A lighter aircraft designed to fly with the same payload but with a range of only 4,500 miles will save more fuel. Illustrated in the next slides by Dr John Greens 2008 paper for Greener By Design, presented to the RAeS Toulouse Branch - RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 54 /124

Options for reducing fuel burn per passenger-km The Brguet range equation Fuel burn per tonne-kilometre R 1.022 exp WF 1 W X 1 E

WP R X WP R X where X H L/D

L/D = = = = 1

HL/DL/D calorific value of fuel overall propulsion efficiency lift/drag ratio RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 55 /124 Effect of design range on fuel burn for long-distance travel Design

range km Payload tonne Mission fuel tonne Reserve fuel

tonne Max TOW tonne OEW tonne Fuel for 15,000km tonne

15,000 25.9 120.3 13.5 300.0 140.3

120.3 5,000 25.9 20.4 5.4 120.0

68.4 61.1 Travelling 15,000km in one hop or three Revision of earlier GBD estimates: Correction published in August 2006 issue of the Aeronautical Journal Recent research shows the value of building an efficient 4,000nm aircraft Raj Nangia further suggests refuelling rather than landing en route. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 56 /124

Gliding descents are regularly re-invented here in New Zealand in 2007 And by Richard Branson whose crews were then being trained for CDAs..... Also exploring efficiency by towing aircraft to a starting grid before starting engines! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 57 /124 Electric Taxi might reduce jet engines pollution on ground

WheelTug assess the main advantages in time savings RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 58 /124 Electric Taxi might reduce pollution from jet engines Ground WheelTug assess the main advantages in time savings RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 59 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Navigation GPS Systems Available Worldwide

RNP AR (Authorization Required) Procedures introduced RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 60 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Navigation Example of RNP AR (Authorization Required) Approach low traffic environment Departure from Lhasa, Tibet, altitude 9,670ft, Surrounding terrain up to 20,000ft, Minimum Safe Altitude 27,700ft. Considered Worlds Most Challenging airfield. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 61 /124

Fuel Efficiency by Improved Navigation High Traffic Environment Example of Improvements in Accuracy from RNP Approaches into Kelowna BC However the full benefits of Required Navigation Performance needs the route structure to be reorganised to make use of the reduced separation. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 62 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management Europe

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 63 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management USA RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 64 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management USA RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 65 /124

Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management USA Doing efficient visual approaches but need to be integrated! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 66 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management Airbus Progress towards Incorporating the Various Aircraft Systems RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 67 /124 11. Possible Future Operational Fuel Savings

Example of Aircraft Navigational Display showing Other Aircraft, which can be used for Separation Assistance by the crew. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 68 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management Future SESAR plan for Reference Business Trajectories RPTs will be stored in the airlines schedule, authorised by the Air Navigation Service Provider and executed by the crew to comply with the Controlled Time of Arrival RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 69 /124

12. Future ATM Fuel Savings Achieved NOW - USA UPS are already using their own ABESS (Airline Based En-Route Sequencing and Spacing) system to enable their crews to fly efficient CDAs into Louisville. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 70 /124 12. Future ATM Fuel Savings Achieved NOW - USA UPS Operations Control uses ABESS to Sequence & Merge aircraft during Cruise Communication systems & Displays in UPS aircraft then allow crews to manage their own FDMS (Flight Deck Merging & Spacing) during an idle thrust descent. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 71 /124

12. Future ATM Fuel Savings Achieved NOW - USA Considerable reductions in Noise and Fuel have made by the UPS ABESS & FDMS systems, enabling their crews to fly efficient CDAs into Louisville. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 72 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management In Sweden flights have been flying Green 4D trajectories RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 73 /124

Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management Technology being implemented.... in 2012 .... but takes time.... Lockheed demoed 4D navigation on the TriStar in 1976! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 74 /124 Fuel Efficiency by Improved Air Traffic Management Pilot input and decisions still required But for how much longer? RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 75 /124

Need for Pilots? Opinion of Experts from Europe and USA Plans for Future European Aircraft ACARE Advisory Council for Aeronautical Research in Europe It is not possible to automate all the possible functions required in future systems (like autoland was in the past), nor to forecast the nature of unexpected events. Therefore pilots must be retained in the aircraft and systems will be designed to keep them in the loop. Recent Comments from the FAA Numerous events are on record where pilots have avoided disaster by keeping control of aircraft when systems failed in unexpected ways.

Flight Safety Foundation: The greatest aid to flight safety is a well trained Flight Crew RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 76 /124 Need for Pilots? Comparisons with Other Endeavours Very Approximate Fatalities: Airlines 1K per year Roads 40K per year Medical accidents 200K per year? Medical Industrys Adoption of Aviation Methods Checklists to avoid basic errors wrong limbs/tools left in patients

Resource Management to establish team work & reduce autocracy Error Monitoring? When asked engineer friend, if wanted to reduce accidents, why not work on automatic cars replied Thats not so much fun! Google cars have now driven automatically for thousands of miles! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 77 /124 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 78 /124 Safety so far with Pilots 2 pilots & Flight Engineer

2 pilots Entry of 2nd general aircraft with 2 pilots & Flight Engineer appears to have been smoother than later 2 pilot aircraft RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 79 /124 Airbus has developed landing performance guidance system RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 80 /124 What Happens when Technology goes Wrong Joe Morrall Chief Scientist

Statistics do not show the accidents pilots have saved Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations How Often are Emergency and Abnormal Procedures Required? Aviation Authorities are required to operate a Mandatory Occurrence Reporting Scheme - when Any incident which endangers or which, if not corrected, would endanger an aircraft, its occupants or any other person. must be reported. The UK CAA receives 2,631 MORs last year, 1,237 were related to weather, wake vortex, ATC, etc, so over 1,000 involved aircraft systems. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 81 /124

Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations Crew Emergency and Abnormal Procedures Dealing with Expected Failures by Prioritising/Following Procedures About 40% of training in aircraft type rating Transition Courses involve emergency and abnormal procedures through the ECAM

ECAM Electronic Centralised Aircraft Monitor RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 82 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations ECAM RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 83 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations

Ideally all Failures are managed by following ECAM Actions : ECAM Actions To do as shown Status What is wrong / How to fly RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 84 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations But some Emergency & Abnormal Failures Need Paper Checklists RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 85 /124

Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations Basic flying skills are still required, such as using just pitch and thrust when airspeed indications fail, together with some Memory Items like Loss of Braking. Later developments make aircraft such as the A350 and A380 easier to operate with less need for paper checklists, but new systems being introduced will bring their own specific procedures. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 86 /124 Effects of Changing Technology - More challenges for pilots

Early aircraft Input/sensor failures affected single systems Current aircraft Input/sensor failures affect multiple systems With perhaps..... (AFR 447) multiple consequences ..... disconnections ..... multiple warnings..... possibly startling But if crews understand the systems and are prepared Need not be quite so startling hopefully! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 87 /124

Airbus A320 Flight Control Laws Reconfiguration after failures RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 88 /124 Effects of Changing Technology - More challenges for pilots Table assumes failed systems are flagged invalid Inputs/data can fail in different ways Erroneous/incorrect and flagged as Invalid Inputs to systems switched off. Reconfigurations made as per design.

Erroneous/incorrect but NOT flagged as invalid Bad information fed to systems, perhaps causing anomalies (Like 737 into AMS when Radio Altimeter fed 0 ft so autothrust reduced to idle as if had landed.) Unreliable incorrect but may return to normal RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 89 /124 After Accidents like AFR 447 Upset Recovery Training in an Aircraft is Recommended To be part of a Commercial Pilots Initial Qualification RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 90 /124

Prime Aim is to Prevent Crew Losing their Awareness RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 91 /124 Simpler to keep Situational Awareness in latest aircraft Airbus A350 Flight Deck RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 92 /124 Simpler to keep Situational Awareness in latest aircraft

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 93 /124 But if systems fail - could be to back flying manually and find position by interpreting needle & dials RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 94 /124 Pilots must be able to retain stick and rudder flying skills & ability to keep Situational Awareness by interpreting basic instruments .... until new technology reliable to current safety levels

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 95 /124 Is a Pilot a Commander or Technician just complying with procedures? We need a technically competent Commander who is capable of fulfilling the basic Flight Operations task to Carry Maximum Payload at Minimum Cost (safe, fuel efficient, quiet, kind to aircraft-engines, good service, etc) and is capable of handling a Black Swan Event Discovered in Australia, not

accepted as Swan for decades Theory by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Work focuses on problems of randomness and probability. Criticized the risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises Beyond 10-9

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 96 /124 How to Prepare for Black Swans? 2/13/20 97 97 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 97 /124

Considered by many to be a major Black Swan Event RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 98 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations Examples of Crew actions saving loss of life : Eric Gennottes crew landed a A300 B4 with no hydraulics after hit by missile at Baghdad Captain Peter Burkill retracted the 777 flaps to reduce drag thus avoiding

fences before the runway when engines lost thrust on final approach into LHR Captain Sullenberger started the APU out of sequence to keep the A320 powered normally when ditching in the Hudson RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 99 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations Examples of Failures requiring Considerable Crew Activity :

After an A380 engine 2 uncontained failure, while the aircraft was being flown manually, Richard de Crespignys crew had to action 53 ECAM messages taking some 50 minutes to complete. It took the 5 man crew some 2 hours to prepare the aircraft for landing. When on the ground they still had matters to resolve engine 2 could not be shut down, wheels brakes reached 900C. (Possible to automate in the foreseable future?) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 100 /124 Another Example when the crew judged that the aircraft automatic ECAM System

(Electronic Centralised Aircraft Monitor) was better to be ignored as they had more information a burning smell RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 101 /124 Another Example when the crew judged that the aircraft automatic ECAM System (Electronic Centralised Aircraft Monitor) was better to be ignored as they had more information a burning smell Feed into burner can failed, Fuel sprayed into nacelle.

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 102 /124 Crew Actions in Emergency and Abnormal Operations Delta B767 Captains Account of Arrival after Japanese Earthquake The Japanese controller's anxiety level seemed quite high and he said expect "indefinite" holding time. No one would commit to a time frame on that so I got my copilot and relief pilot busy looking at divert stations and our fuel situation, which, after an ocean crossing is typically low......... With more planes piling in from both east and west, all needing a place to land and several now fuel critical ATC was getting over-whelmed. In the scramble, and without waiting for my fuel to get critical, I got my flight a clearance to head for Nagoya, fuel situation still okay........ few minutes into heading that way, I was "ordered" by ATC to reverse course. Nagoya was saturated with traffic and unable to handle more planes (read- airport full). Ditto for Osaka............

Planes started to heading for air force bases. The nearest to Tokyo was Yokoda AFB. I threw my hat in the ring for that initially. The answer - Yokoda closed! no more space............... "Sapparo Control - Delta XX requesting immediate clearance direct to Chitose, minimum fuel, unable hold. "Negative the Pattern is full. "Sapparo Control - make that - Delta XX declaring emergency, low fuel, proceeding direct Chitose "Roger Delta XX, understood, you are cleared direct to Chitose, contact Chitose approach....etc...." In the end, Delta had two 747s, my 767 and another 767 and a 777 all on the ramp at Chitose. We saw two American airlines planes, a United and two Air Canada as well. Not to mention several extra Al Nippon and Japan Air Lines planes - 9 hours later, Japan air lines finally got around to getting a boarding ladder to the plane...... RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 103 /124

Main Reasons for Improvement in Aviation Safety Technical Aircraft Hardware and Software Knowledge of aircraft position: Late 1960s - DME (reliable distance from a VHF radio beacon) eliminated need for Step Down Descents and Approaches; Electronic maps; Mid 1990s GPS (Global Positioning System) maybe disrupted by Broadband in the US! Dealing with the symptoms of poor 3 D navigation/CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain) : 1970s GPWS (Ground Proximity Warning

System); 1990s - Enhanced GPWS with terrain database/TAWS. Windshear: 1970s Reactive to fly out of, 1990s Detection to avoid Automatic Airborne Collision Avoidance Guidance: 1980s Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System, 2007 ACAS. Digital Flight Simulators: 1970s progressive improvement to be able train above devices as well as crew manual flying & system handling. Digital Flight Data Monitoring Europe1960s, US 1990s allowing expanded Flight Operations Monitoring to help assess crew performance, and human factors. Improved maintenance / reliability of systems RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 104 /124

Main Reasons for Improvement in Aviation Safety Human Ware. Selection to recruit suitable candidates Crew Resource Management 1960s (some airlines) Equally competent crew members working together, Correct command gradient between captain and co-pilot Routines to agree decisions, manage abnormal circumstances Line Operations Monitoring to obtain honest feedback

Management of errors Flight Time Limitations Good/Clear Operational Documentation Checklists Procedures Safety record of UAVs is many orders worse that crewed aircraft RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 105 /124 Recent Accidents Asiana B777 Visual Approach San Francisco Fight from Korea, became low on visual

approach and hit sea wall. Confusion over use of automatic thrust. Despite hard ground contact accident all but 2 survived SFO visual approaches have always been used to keep high landing rates on both runways. Now banned for foreign operators. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 106 /124

Recent Accidents UPS Airbus A300-600F Instrument Non Precision Approach into Birmingham Alabama 14th August 2013 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 107 /124 Lecture re Constant Angle Approaches April 2013 Let us never have to say that accident need not have happened. ............but only 4 months later... RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 108 /124

Lecture at WATS April 2013 Before DME / reliable distance information NPAs Had to be Step Down or Dive and Drive Dive to next Minimum Altitude Fix Fix

such as such as NDB Beacon Flashing Light RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 109 /124

Back to Benefits of a Constant Angle NPA Profile Stable Approach established as many orders safer Stable approach, landing configuration, no pitch/thrust changes NPA Minima may be reduced 6.5% 3.7 393 f/nm 120 kts

140 kts 160 kts 790 fpm 920 fpm 1,050 fpm Dist KLO Alt QNH (HAT) D -7.4 4000'

(2584') D -7.0 3860' (2444') D -6.0 3470'

(2054') D -5.0 3080' (1664') D -4.0 2680'

(1264') D -3.3 2390' (974') D -2.0 1900'

(484') D -1.0 D -0.9 1510' 1470' (94') (54')

DME-Altitude Tables can provide regular checks to confirm aircraft on the correct profile to 30ft accuracy. Rather than checks at single points which might be interrupted by ATC request, crew action etc. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 110 /124 FAA LOC-DME Chart without table & Possible Table RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 111 /124 FAA LOC-DME Chart without table & Possible Table

14.1-5070 9.5-3500 The chart profile is a linear path from 3500ft at 14.1D. The table shows on a 3.2 GS 5070 at 14.1D & 3500 at 9.5D. The profile is not realistic. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 112 /124 BHM LOC-DME Chart - Correct Distances for Profile 9.5

3.5 NM RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 113 /124 BHM LOC-DME Chart Correct Profile for Distances 1 9.5 X 3.5 NM 4.6 NM

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 114 /124 BHM LOC-DME Chart Correct Profile for Distances 2 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 115 /124 Essential Info for Monitoring LOC-DME Approach If no chart table available Use another system RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 116 /124

8. Save Fuel/Time Flying Constant Angle VOR-DME Approach Continued Need for DME-Altitude Tables DME (Distance Measuring Equipment) reads to 0.1 n mile, therefore: Altitudes on a 3 degree glidepath can be checked / flown to within 30ft (300 x .1) (It is important to use the correct DME - ILS or VOR if both are available!) A DME in line with a runway can show an accurate glidepath on a Non Precision Approach by a simple DME-Altitude table for a Constant Descent Angle approach. Step Down NPAs and many accidents could have been avoided 30 years ago. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 117 /124

14. Accidents That Need Not Have Happened RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 118 /124 Hope this has given some idea why competent pilots will be needed for efficient, safe operations into the foreseeable future......but There is an imminent shortage of pilots. The supply from the military is no more. Sufficient suitable candidates with the necessary finance of up to 100, 000.00

are not coming forward. RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 119 /124 Conclusion .Flight Decks and pilots roles are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future We must continue to recruit best standard of candidate to maintain our high levels of safety and efficiency A380 Flight Deck

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 120 /124 Conclusion or do you still believe it is like driving a train in one dimension rather that 3? French TGV driver on record 575kph/357mph run RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 121 /124 We must recruit competent & motivated pilots

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 122 /124 Remember... RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 123 /124 MCC Courses All airline pilots must pass a Multi-Crew Cooperation Course These concentrate on the fact that: We all make mistakes, We should admit our mistakes/we were wrong

We must help each other work together for the common good of not having an accident. MCC Courses should be compulsory for bankers and most of us! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 124 /124 Thank you! RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 125 /124

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 126 /124 Need for Distance-Altitude Tables in Future Aircraft Latest Airbus aircraft can fly FLS ILS Look-alike Fms generated Landing System (other manufacturers have similar systems) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 127 /124 Need for Distance-Altitude Tables in Future Aircraft Latest Airbus aircraft can fly FLS ILS Look-alike Fms generated Landing System

(other manufacturers have similar systems) RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 128 /124 Need for Distance-Altitude Tables in Future Aircraft Latest Airbus aircraft can fly FLS ILS Look-alike (Fms generated Landing System) Altitude Minima based on Barometric Altitude RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 129 /124

RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 130 /124 RAeS Solent Branch 13 Nov 2013 Hugh DIBLEY Operational Fuel Savings & Noise Reduction, Do We Still Need a Pilot? 131 /124

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